lightsun47 

^ I am still trying to figure out the best entry and exit points. So if I find something fruitful, I will definitely DM you.

Cheers. I don't think there is a magic bullet, just deliberate practice, until one develops an intuition for it. Like learning a language or instrument.

CME :- Using Options Prices to Assess Oil Market Opportunities

https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/whitepapers/using-options-prices-to-assess-oil-market-opportunities.html

Point 3 "Estimating an expected distribution of oil prices with a series of butterflies" might be useful to some people if you don't already know how to do it.

Darn, today was tough. Over-trading /CL during the night US time, 5 min chart, maybe 3 am to 4:30 am, blew 700 bucks easily, trading EXACTLY opposite of what I should have.
Not sure what I should focus on, trading double-tops or -bottoms, or breakouts. Whatever I do, I seem to get it wrong. Then I get burned out, don't trade for the rest of the day, and miss set-ups I otherwise would have taken.
I should stop trading so early, wait for pre-market hours at least.

The closest I've come to fundamentals is to sign up for Blue Line Futures 14 day trial. They have a premarket news, today wasn't actionable, but they seem like a professional front.

I still suspect stop-loss is too tight, but scared to leave it wide.

I also sometimes see rallies develop, but by the time I identify them, I'm too scared to enter, usually having missed out on maybe 20-30 points in /CL.
Of course then they continue rallying and crush any daily goals I might even hope for.

Volume doesn't seem to help with any analysis either. Big volume, doesn't matter if candle is small or big, doesn't seem to confirm directional trend nor signal reversal.

What's a good starting point? Only taking trades WITH the 8 day SMA trend or something.
I've been trading /CL and /NG this for a few months now (mostly /CL trades) , but seem as lost as ever.

I try to trade based off this YouTuber who post /CL and /NG charts three times a day.
Basically identify daily levels; candle lows and highs, using price channels and also using 8, 21, 50, 100 and 200 SMA. Then he just trades the ranges, sometimes holds during major trends, but also looking for daily scalps.
Seems like a lot of levels to keep track of, but seems to work for him. He's been at it for 20+ years, and looks to be doing well.

The bull is starting , i can see the level 73.20/73.00 is important .

I will find a buying

ManWithBankOrders 

The bull is starting , i can see the level 73.20/73.00 is important . I will find a buying

I saw it bottoming around 73. Too scared to enter on the slow drift upwards, now I'm trigger-scared I missed my entry...

kummi90 

I saw it bottoming around 73. Too scared to enter on the slow drift upwards, now I'm trigger-scared I missed my entry...

Of course I entered long, at 73,56, set target at 74.21. I go on a hike, it kissed 74.17, and I missed the huge rally to the downside, AND I got stopped out at 73.1.
Also went long /NG, got stopped out there, missed rally down. I had some options to recuperate. Even if I didn't go on some stupid fucking hike, would I have the confidence to pull the trigger, after taking a beating?

And of course, EIA reported big draw today of 4.649 mill. But why the fuck would that impact price, right?

How am I this bad at this? I'm bleeding money like a pig, I'm out 1.4k in two days from MANY trades, I feel like I'm losing my mind.
FUCK, for me this is life-changing money, let's say if I made 1.1k instead of losing 1.4k. Realistically, a decent trader could have pulled 1.6k today from /CL and /NG, just playing regular break-out trades or observing and acting on lower highs.

I'm trying to trade what's in front of me, without bias, but I feel like a beaten down dog returning to its master every time I trade now. Trading scared although I feel like my ideas are founded.
I SEE the trades in retrospect, but I feel like whatever I do, I play everything DEAD WRONG. I can't figure out what.

Should just flip a coin. At least I wouldn't BLEED money.

Any tips is appreciated.

kummi90 

for me this is life-changing money

Never trade with money you can't afford to lose.
My advice would be take a break and reassess. If this was easy everybody would do it.

SMCJB 

Never trade with money you can't afford to lose. My advice would be take a break and reassess. If this was easy everybody would do it.

I can afford to blow the whole account, but getting the hang of these "model" trades would still change my life, at least long-run haha.

I don't revenge trade, so I'll be good tomorrow. But this 1k+ as a cushion would be nice.

Did anyone catch a piece of today's action? How do you all trade?

@kummi90 please don't take offence, but can I ask why do you think what you are doing has any positive expectancy?

Personally I was busy today, which is nice, I've been way to quiet recently. With the front down $1.20 today, the back was actually up. And the spreads did trade all the way out to Dec29-Dec30. Third time in four days the front has been down hard and the back is basically unchanged. Spreads getting crushed. Dec24-Dec25 Spread down $1.50 in a week.

SMCJB 

@kummi90 please don't take offence, but can I ask why do you think what you are doing has any positive expectancy?

None taken. I think one generally can learn to trade most markets. Discretionary trading has its merit, but requires dedication, deliberate practice and time upfront.
There is no reason why even a decent trader couldn't have extracted 1k the previous day, and 1k yesterday, from /CL and /NG! Really model trading days, and the price action couldn't be cleaner. Yesterday I landed about 300 bucks, but you can see how a more seasoned, collected trader could at least double that, just catching the meat in between highs and lows.

SMCJB 

Personally I was busy today, which is nice, I've been way to quiet recently. With the front down $1.20 today, the back was actually up. And the spreads did trade all the way out to Dec29-Dec30. Third time in four days the front has been down hard and the back is basically unchanged. Spreads getting crushed. Dec24-Dec25 Spread down $1.50 in a week.

You trade the spreads? How do you go about that?