This morning is a low to high type of day in Euro that shortly after it broke below last week's low @1.1540, it trades quickly back into last week's range resulting in a spring type formation.

It is possible for Euro to retrace higher to test 61.8 fib of the whole drop from Friday's high.
So far, the bounce looks merely technical to me and I am not going to switch my bearish bias until it takes out last week's high.

The dollar was showing some weakness this morning feeding a couple of strong spikes into some key technical levels in both 6E and 6B.

Firstly 6B has taken out a key high at 13050 but failed to hold above that level. Looking back, that thrust looks more like a stop run than a genuine break out.
Now the 13015 is holding support. See how many touches and attempts the bulls are trying to hold that level. Once that level were to give away, there would be a quick flush below 13000 level.


The euro was able to trade through last week's VPOC, but it has failed to show any strength after the bulls taking profit in the early morning upthrust. It is most likely to come back down to the low of the week to complete the right shoulder and break down from there.

When I was writing the last sentence of this note, the flush came.
It has achieved the minmum target at 12970 in just 2 mins.

shrekchenbin 

The dollar was showing some weakness this morning feeding a couple of strong spikes into some key technical levels in both 6E and 6B. Firstly 6B has taken out a key high at 13050 but failed to hold above that level. Looking back, that thrust looks more like a stop run than a genuine break out. Now the 13015 is holding support. See how many touches and attempts the bulls are trying to hold that level. Once that level were to give away, there would be a quick flush below 13000 level. The euro was able to trade through last week's VPOC, but it has failed to show any strength after the bulls taking profit in the early morning upthrust. It is most likely to come back down to the low of the week to complete the right shoulder and break down from there.

Today is a massive bouncing day. I was following the intraday swings in RTY from low to high, high to low, then low to high again.
However, after taking profit at 1719, there were massive block buy tickets entering the market. But I didn't react to that information. In fact the buying setup is so clear in hindsight that the 1718 print is a re-buy because that's where the big boys stepped in.

As a result, I was only watching on the side line to see RTY ripping from 1718 to 1725 for the last up leg. What a mistake!

I have finally gotten myself out of a crypto algo trading project.
The algo still requires so much of manual work that I have grown disillusioned.

Now I can focus back on the discretionary trading that I like and i promise myself that I would write the market prep everyday when i don't have to take care of the kids.

1. The european equity is on the verge of bullish break out. It is quite easy to see that in FESX that the weekly pivot has been capping the upside move for the whole week with three touches. With each touch the resistance is getting weaker. With a break out in FESX, the DAX would be sent much higher as at this moment, the DAX has been under performing to the EuStoxx.

2. The euro has been trading above its the weekly value range. Should it holding firmly above 11620, it should be able to take out last week's high and challenge 11675 level.


3. 6A has broken out of last three day balance and traded back into last week's value. I would like to keep my imagination open about its upside from the technical point view, but still keep in mind that the fundamental backdrop might be against a much extended move to the upside.

shrekchenbin 

I have finally gotten myself out of a crypto algo trading project. The algo still requires so much of manual work that I have grown disillusioned. Now I can focus back on the discretionary trading that I like and i promise myself that I would write the market prep everyday when i don't have to take care of the kids. 1. The european equity is on the verge of bullish break out. It is quite easy to see that in FESX that the weekly pivot has been capping the upside move for the whole week with three touches. With each touch the resistance is getting weaker. With a break out in FESX, the DAX would be sent much higher as at this moment, the DAX has been under performing to the EuStoxx.

A wall of liquidity appeared in ES at 2907 that the buyers just can't break through.
Look at the number of contracts get absorbed there.

Double top weak structure above RTY at 1724.
This could be the magnet for the price in the coming days.

It has made a relatively shallow pullback to form the right should of an inverse head and shoulder's pattern.
If it were to break, RTY could go as high as 1750.

1. ES has reversed after reaching just 2 ticks below the double bottom low of 2903. This is a sign of short term trader participation and formed a weak structure at 2902. Why is this a weak structure? Because there is a big pool of short term trader's stop orders being built just below 2902.
Once those stops are triggered, it is likely to create a flush towards the VAH of last week's volume profile at 2897.25.


2. Euro has achieved its upside target and turning low to run liquidity pools. The 11690 level would be key for the bulls. If that would be taken, a run below the double bottom at 11650 would likely be the next target.


3. Aussie has turned bullish last week. If it were to continue its strength, it would have to find some support above or at 7120 level which is the VPOC of last week's volume profile.

This morning out of the London open, Euro has reached below the low of the day to run stops and to reach for the VPOC of last Thursday, where it finds strong reaction.