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A reason for the March contract being much cheaper could be the fact that the crop of the Southern Hemisphere will enter the market after expiration of the December contract.
I stay away from speculation if the war in Ukraine will end today via a miracle or will stay for a very long time. I am unable to make a qualified guess.
In many years, I like trading the RB-HO spread at this time of the year. Looking at the huge moves yesterday and today, I am glad I do not hold a position.
Currently, the only position I hold in the commodities is a very small long term coffee position (only 1 future).
I agree - the wheat july-sep spread blew out to -180 at one point when usually it is never below 0. Making a trade now has to be small size, or you risk your entire account getting liquidated. Extremely dangerous times for mean reversion. A bad harvest could cause structure to collapse again.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,057 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,409
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WSJ :- A Market Mystery: The ?Wheat Whale? That Came Out of Nowhere
Who was behind the surge of trading in wheat futures last month? Some point to a group of Reddit users who mobbed an E.T.F. offering exposure to the wheat market.
Shares of the E.T.F. had been turning over at a daily volume of 300,000 to 500,000 for months. On March 4, their daily trading volume hit 27 million shares. That day, the fund took in $183 million; it had never before taken in more than $35 million in a single day. Its price, which was just over $8 on Feb. 25, peaked at $12.28 on March 7.
I would like to investigate being focused in grains, beans and see feasibility vs my current focus on equities and treasuries.
The motivation is that it's a real commodity that really has a benefit for our living, the quality of market participants as mainly commercials and hedgers.
I would like to get from the market experts here about the important resources to know about this market to be a specialist. References, forums, related websites, trade strategies, seasonality, outright vs spread vs Options trading, etc.
Regarding grains & beans I am currently using the following resources:
The Hightower Report (Fundamentals),
MRCI (Seasonals),
Wellenreiter (COT).
Wellenreiter is a German service, which I mainly use for other purposes. I was a customer of Floyd Upperman regarding COT data for some years, who prepares these data in a very helpful manner.
There are brokers that have expertise in trading grains and beans. I worked with RJO for some years, who have excellent reports on grains and beans. There might be others as well.
Currently, I do not trade grains and beans. The price movements are strongly correlated to the war in Ukraine, and I am unable to forecast these events.