Very insightful using his real live risk screen from live traders, and their habits being demonstrated openly.

Mike

"I would rather go out and pay for a P90X and put it on my shelf, than exercise."

Love it. Relates to buying trading advice from vendors.

Mike

And another great webinar!

I will post the recording sometime tomorrow most likely.

Mike

Big Mike 

Very. Next. Trade. Not a string or series of trades (ie "edge"). Mike

I still think the 50/50 right/wrong ratio is not appropriate. Maybe it's a question of semantic but if your edge is greater than 50% then the very next trade has an implied chance to be right equal to your edge (+/-) otherwise why would you risk placing a trade. The way it is formulated here implies that all of your trades are independent but it is not the case. However, it is safe to say you are not sure at 100% if the very next trade will fall within your overall cumulative winning % so far.

trendisyourfriend 

I still think the 50/50 right/wrong ratio is not appropriate. Maybe it's a question of semantic but if your edge is greater than 50% then the very next trade has an implied chance to be right equal to your edge (+/-) otherwise why would you risk placing a trade. The way it is formulated here implies that all of your trades are independent but it is not the case. However, it is safe to say you are not sure at 100% if the very next trade will fall within your overall cumulative winning % so far.

Since you believe you can predict the odds of the very next trade, why do you take losing trades? Just skip those.....

Mike

trendisyourfriend 

I still think the 50/50 right/wrong ratio is not appropriate. Maybe it's a question of semantic but if your edge is greater than 50% then the very next trade has an implied chance to be right equal to your edge (+/-) otherwise why would you risk placing a trade. The way it is formulated here implies that all of your trades are independent but it is not the case. However, it is safe to say you are not sure at 100% if the very next trade will fall within your overall cumulative winning % so far.

its is more like 33/33/33 most of the time and 50/50 during the opening swings (CL anyway). Generally speaking of course.

trendisyourfriend 

I still think the 50/50 right/wrong ratio is not appropriate. Maybe it's a question of semantic but if your edge is greater than 50% then the very next trade has an implied chance to be right equal to your edge (+/-) otherwise why would you risk placing a trade. The way it is formulated here implies that all of your trades are independent but it is not the case. However, it is safe to say you are not sure at 100% if the very next trade will fall within your overall cumulative winning % so far.

I don't understand either; if every trade is 50/50 how can a string of trades be any better than 50/50?
The only way it can work if winners are greater than losers

Big Mike 

Since you believe you can predict the odds of the very next trade, why do you take losing trades? Just skip those..... Mike

I agree you can't predict at 100% the outcomes of a trade. But seeing each trade as a 50/50 proposition is not exact either. Don't read me wrong, i know what you mean but you are not using the right words.

There are two outcomes to the next trade.

Win
Lose

Scratch = loss, commissions/time

Two outcomes = 50/50

We are talking only about the very next trade. Not a string of trades.

If you could predict the future, and you knew the next trade was a loser, why take it?

If you could predict the future, and you knew the next trade was a winner, why not trade 1,000 lots?

Mike

trendisyourfriend 

I agree you can't predict at 100% the outcomes of a trade. But seeing each trade as a 50/50 proposition is not exact either. Don't read me wrong, i know what you mean but you are not using the right words.

Did you watch this and the last FT71 webinar?

Mike