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March 22nd, 2012, 05:44 PM
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator Developer Swing Trader
Experience: Advanced
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Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
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Very insightful using his real live risk screen from live traders, and their habits being demonstrated openly.
Mike
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Best Threads (Most Thanked) in the last 7 days on NexusFi
March 22nd, 2012, 06:26 PM
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator Developer Swing Trader
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,621 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,356
Thanks Received: 101,989
"I would rather go out and pay for a P90X and put it on my shelf, than exercise."
Love it. Relates to buying trading advice from vendors.
Mike
March 22nd, 2012, 06:39 PM
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator Developer Swing Trader
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,621 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,356
Thanks Received: 101,989
And another great webinar!
I will post the recording sometime tomorrow most likely.
Mike
March 22nd, 2012, 07:04 PM
Quebec Canada
Market Wizard
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
Frequency: Daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 4,530 since Oct 2009
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Big Mike
Very. Next. Trade.
Not a string or series of trades (ie "edge").
Mike
I still think the 50/50 right/wrong ratio is not appropriate. Maybe it's a question of semantic but if your edge is greater than 50% then the very next trade has an implied chance to be right equal to your edge (+/-) otherwise why would you risk placing a trade. The way it is formulated here implies that all of your trades are independent but it is not the case. However, it is safe to say you are not sure at 100% if the very next trade will fall within your overall cumulative winning % so far.
March 22nd, 2012, 07:11 PM
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator Developer Swing Trader
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,621 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,356
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trendisyourfriend
I still think the 50/50 right/wrong ratio is not appropriate. Maybe it's a question of semantic but if your edge is greater than 50% then the very next trade has an implied chance to be right equal to your edge (+/-) otherwise why would you risk placing a trade. The way it is formulated here implies that all of your trades are independent but it is not the case. However, it is safe to say you are not sure at 100% if the very next trade will fall within your overall cumulative winning % so far.
Since you believe you can predict the odds of the very next trade, why do you take losing trades? Just skip those.....
Mike
March 22nd, 2012, 07:16 PM
los angeles
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: nt
Trading: cl
Posts: 290 since Jan 2012
trendisyourfriend
I still think the 50/50 right/wrong ratio is not appropriate. Maybe it's a question of semantic but if your edge is greater than 50% then the very next trade has an implied chance to be right equal to your edge (+/-) otherwise why would you risk placing a trade. The way it is formulated here implies that all of your trades are independent but it is not the case. However, it is safe to say you are not sure at 100% if the very next trade will fall within your overall cumulative winning % so far.
its is more like 33/33/33 most of the time and 50/50 during the opening swings (CL anyway). Generally speaking of course.
March 22nd, 2012, 07:18 PM
bc,canada
Experience: Beginner
Platform: MT4,Oanda,NinjaTrader
Trading: stocks,forex
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012
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trendisyourfriend
I still think the 50/50 right/wrong ratio is not appropriate. Maybe it's a question of semantic but if your edge is greater than 50% then the very next trade has an implied chance to be right equal to your edge (+/-) otherwise why would you risk placing a trade. The way it is formulated here implies that all of your trades are independent but it is not the case. However, it is safe to say you are not sure at 100% if the very next trade will fall within your overall cumulative winning % so far.
I don't understand either; if every trade is 50/50 how can a string of trades be any better than 50/50?
The only way it can work if winners are greater than losers
March 22nd, 2012, 07:20 PM
Quebec Canada
Market Wizard
Experience: Intermediate
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Big Mike
Since you believe you can predict the odds of the very next trade, why do you take losing trades? Just skip those.....
Mike
I agree you can't predict at 100% the outcomes of a trade. But seeing each trade as a 50/50 proposition is not exact either. Don't read me wrong, i know what you mean but you are not using the right words.
March 22nd, 2012, 07:49 PM
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator Developer Swing Trader
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,621 since Jun 2009
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There are two outcomes to the next trade.
Win
Lose
Scratch = loss, commissions/time
Two outcomes = 50/50
We are talking only about the very next trade. Not a string of trades.
If you could predict the future, and you knew the next trade was a loser, why take it?
If you could predict the future, and you knew the next trade was a winner, why not trade 1,000 lots ?
Mike
March 22nd, 2012, 07:51 PM
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator Developer Swing Trader
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,621 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,356
Thanks Received: 101,989
trendisyourfriend
I agree you can't predict at 100% the outcomes of a trade. But seeing each trade as a 50/50 proposition is not exact either. Don't read me wrong, i know what you mean but you are not using the right words.
Did you watch this and the last FT71 webinar?
Mike
Last Updated on October 16, 2020