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I don't want to muddy the thread, but I do appreciate the ideas from all of you so here goes:
More important than an low average error is to know, if possible when the estimate of the midpoint is about correct and when it is way off.
lets say we have information that influences our formula(s) accuracy so under certain conditions we know are formula(s) are going to be way off. Then under those conditions we do not use our formula
I'm make up some stuff here:
w = a very large o/n gap (for ES >5pts)
x = an open at the low end of the estimated range
y = an open at the high end of the estimated range
z = a strong multiday trend (either up or down)
In any case, I guess I am rambling here, but I have notice that my estimated mid can be close many days and then way off on one.
Today is a good example of the need for several formula for predicting the midpt
It was clear from the o/n it would be a strong down day (at least from the open)
We had started a downtrend on Friday and once the open happen the selling was unleashed.
In this case estimates based on a continuation of Friday, or - the open would give a poor estimate.
Are you familiar with investorIQ ? He does some forward projection based on back testing. He usually puts out a YouTube video everyday. Might give you some ideas.