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FDAX Gap: no gap
Gap closed during IB: x
Position price at 9:30: inside prior day HL
IB direction: long
DAX Long trade
Entry 11:30 @ 15994
Exit 14:30 @ 16027
SL 44 pts
Result 33 pts
Historical results with this setup:
SumR 396 (20 trades/win% 80%)
So, SumR translates to a relative (to current FDAX price) result of 32 points per trade (SumR/No of trades/10000*9am open price >> 396/20/10000*15961)
Let’s see
FESX almost good. Here you can see how the SumR is going to generate more trades:
To just sum up the points of historical trades very often was too low. Now SumR is telling me, that the result per trade was 7,6 points. For FESX that would have been enough for a trade, but combined with the 64%, not good enough.
FESX best trade is trading at almost the same hours as the FDAX trade, but in the opposite direction. I would rather see them going in the same direction, but anyway, not (yet?) part of the system.
edit 1130: Not liking the entry at the high, but we'll see
Also for the NQ and ES the SumR is going to make a difference. The trades almost never gave enough historical points to base a trade on, so I parked them for further investigation.
For NQ, the SumR of 252 translates to ~29 points per historical trade, which is more than enough.
For ES, the SumR of 356 translates to 7 points per historical trade, which is also enough.
Will continue to monitor both.
PS. 11:30 from the snap shots is 18:00 CET and 11am CT
FDAX Gap: down gap
Gap closed during IB: yes
Position price at 9:30: inside prior day HL
IB direction: long
Too little historical trades to base a trade on. Caused by the closed down gap.
Monday is a US holiday. I have filters to look at the Friday before US holidays. It seems like there could be an opportunity, but it's not strong enough to trade it.
US holiday: Martin Luther King Day
We created a filter for the Mondays that are a US holiday: MLK, Labor Day, President's Day and Memorial Day. In 12 years, that gives 48 days. So, not much space to use filters.
I want to compare the outcomes with normal Mondays, but that will some more work. Today I would want these to give the same trade idea for me to take a trade.
FDAX Gap: no gap
Gap closed during IB: x
Position price at 9:30: inside prior day HL
IB direction: short
The best trade would be based in 'normal' Monday filters, a long from 1030-1300, but it's not well supported by the 'Monday US holiday' filter, so no trade.
FDAX
Gap: down gap
Gap closed during IB: yes
Position price at 9:30: inside prior day HL
IB direction: long
The closed down gap doesn't give enough historical occurrences to base a trade on.
FESX (no gap) came close to a trade, but then it didn't.
edit 9:45: I actually miscalculated the SumR, so there is a FESX trade. It's a thin one, because of the 65%, but: short 10:00-10:30 SL8 pts
edit 12:12: 4 points profit on this bullish day