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It is really amazing that like on ET those people which do not have a clue about what DBP is really writing about are showing up again and again. The problem is if you read only a bit more then you will find all the topics you mentioned covered...speaking about uncertainty and the optimal spots and risk...
So maybe all those people should read a little more than the first or the last two posts...
It's quite simple but not easy...
Yet again I have to admire DBP for keeping up the motivation to take the time for explaining his stuff - and I hope he will in the future.
Considering a large amount of what he posts is in hindsight and with no blemishes, mistakes, and missed opportunities I would say no he shows nothing about the uncertainty of trading. Instead, it's all beautiful hindsight charts that suck in unwitting noobs. The first question you should ask yourself is does his method ever not work? If the answer is no, the person you are talking to is full of BS.
I agree with you that one should be very suspicious in this business.
But if you read his (free) Ebook and a bit more of his posts, then you will understand I believe that DBP is not the person which fits in the typical snakeoil vendor pattern...
He himself claims that there are not too many people which are successfully applying his method, but I believe that one could if one just does the work...
I feel that there are actually two things going on. First he has the roots of Wyckoff and trading price by way of behavior, and this I like. But then he has his SLA system which in some ways completely throws all this to the wayside. It relies waiting for a 1 min RET, and when this presents itself, the best opportunity is usually gone. Today is a fine example where price bounced off the overnight low, and by the time the first RET showed up, the move was done.
If you are trading price, and watching it move, you simply cannot be waiting for 1 minute bars to form a certain way. He has said many times that you have to watch price move. So in an effort to make trading simple by way of SLA, he has actually drastically lowered the win rate in my opinion, and a low win rate is actually quite difficult for a new trader to accept. SLA only works very well on a strongly trending day and how often do we get this? The stat that markets trend 30% of the time and range 70% of the time sounds about right.
If you are following behavior, and you have areas outlined where you will look for a trade, and you see a rejection, the best place to take it isn't after the first RET if that RET doesn't happen within a few points of the level you were watching and if that RET isn't too deep.
When it came to writing in space, NASA began to r and d the space pen. When research skyrocketed, they abandoned the project and went back to using pencils....
Don't understand something, over complicate it... I have made a career out of trading supply-demand imbalances. Not much more complicated than what you see being taught here. This is a methodology, a strategy. No where is there a claim for anything, but. Don't like it, move on. But until you have read the source material and have done the work, your opinion is nothing more than a b.s. opinion.
Timothy Morge has fifth graders trading using one line on chart, can't get much simpler. The results are better than 99% of those on this forum.
If this is not your cup of tea, not complicated enough, move along, there is a pricey piece of software or fancy new indicator that will tell you what price is doing....
If his method is so sound so whats stopping him from posting examples in real-time - live calls - ? Thats the best way to teach a method . Highlighting potential setups from the past with the benefit of hindsight is useless . Sorry .
What would be even cooler is if DB said, "Hey everyone, since I nail the market each and every day (just like all my hindsight charts) and am so fabulously wealthy from doing this day in and day out... month after month... year after year... I'm going to put this whole guru thing to rest by posting all my realtime trades for just 1 week. I know over all those years I never did that at Traders Laboratory, same at Elite Trader, but I'm finally going to show how it's done in realtime here at futures.io (formerly BMT). That way you will see it in action, and afterwards we can return to the endless, hindsight theoretical discussions that you all love so much."
Real time trades are BS? Wow. I guess actually trading cash and proving your edge publicly is also bullshit. What color is the sky in this alternative universe you live in??
All of his posts are hindsight, or just quotes from old authors. It's basically all theoretical trading. Anyone that actually has been in the business long enough and is an actual real cash trader that depends on his trading for his primary income can tell you instantly that what he is posting is worthless. Worse than worthless, because he attracts newbies that don't know any better to following his perfectly marked up hindsight charts and wasting their time studying a ridiculous methodology.
The fact he doesn't post any trades should tell you everything you need to know. He may be a real nice person, and that's great. But all evidence demonstrates he is NOT a trader.