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I enjoy reading your journal. I can identify with all the things that you write about. I have either gone through all of the same challenges or am addressing similar things now yet. Your persistence in keeping on going is commendable.
- I too have often thought about the fixed profit target in regards to trading one contract. It does seem attractive to be able to take more profit when there is a bigger move. But I have found that I am more consistently profitable when I take a fixed profit target. I try to select a reasonable target that is hit most of the time. I had been using 9 tics on ES, but since the volatility increased, I have increased to 13 tics. I use an 8 tic stoploss. You also have to gauge this with your trading style. I enter on pullbacks. If I entered on breakouts, it would be quite different.
Thanks Mahlon for your sharing! "8 ticks SL is good" compares to mine between 9 and 12. Certainly your 9-13 ticks PT is by far more attractive than my 4-6 ticks for the first or only contract.
Wonder where and how can I find out more on how to set one's PT based on pullbacks/breakouts?!! Appreciate shedding me some light. Thank you.
All I'm saying is that I enter when price pulls back - dips - and so if the trade works out I get a little more movement than if I would have waited for price to break above the previous high.
You just need to look at your charts and how you trade and make a best guess estimate of how much price moves each time on average. Then select a target amount that you will have a high probability of hitting each time. Once you are profitable and consistent you can add contracts amd increase your profits without trying to squeeze more tics out of each move. I hope this makes sense. This is only one way of doing it. Some people prefer targets like fibs or pivots or enevelope expansion. But I like to keep things simple, so this works for me.
When I use 2 contracts, I have found the following to work well:
First profit target = 10
Second profit target = 20
Stop Loss = 12 (can be smaller)
If the move goes to 7 ticks my ATM strategy puts both at BREAK EVEN. i.e. even before it hits the first target but hits 7 ticks profit I move to BE. This gives enough room for a small pullback without closing the trade, and if it does close out no loss.
So here we are, starting a new week. I know you are already working very hard on focusing your efforts. So, I wanted to ask if you've already identified the very specific goals (perhaps name just two) that you intend to focus on this week, and then to grade yourself on daily. If so, would you mind sharing them with us as you go throughout the week?
It is relatively easy to change something in the beginning, but it is far more difficult to sustain that change over time. It is because of this that I keep hammering and hammering on the focus concept.
For instance, if you decide "No more soda for me, only water!". Today it might be quite easy to follow that change. But a week from now, you may have found that you've not done a very good job of sustaining it. If each day you are forced to write down (important) and grade yourself on this goal, it will help you sustain it and focus your energy into being able to do so.
A nice surprise that I have a weekend homework to tackle LOL!
For the coming week, I'd like to focus on the following:
1. Identify and distinguish higher probability trades
I realize my former efforts/energy were not spent on this important area. There were moments last week that I could see a few. I would like to explore the unknown .. smile ..
Note: I'd grade myself A+ or B+ IF I succeed in identifying 2 or 1 trade respectively. At least B- for the efforts made IF Nil. I cannot accept a C grade for my psyche! As a softskills trainer, I believe positive encouragement is very important for one's continued success/learning .. haha ..