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Haha it's easier on some days than others. The only reason why this is part of my psychology goals is because in the past my P&L has an impact on my future trading. Right now I'm just not strong enough psychologically to be able to look at my P&L and not let it cloud my judgment.
One day though!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Wow dude this is really cool, I'll have to check it out.
This got me thinking about whether or not I should track the success of my scenarios. I feel like my scenario planning is pretty good and I'll usually get at least 1 of the scenarios right, but that's just based on my intuition. Does the data back it up?
Maybe I'm over thinking it, but you've given me something to think about lol.
Cheers!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
My swing trade got stopped ON with a 20 point profit. Not what I was expecting to be quite honest but I think I got in a bit too late on this trade to be able to withstand a potential pullback while still maintaining a profit.
Yesterday we saw some stronger than usual volume, and this was a bear side move so are we starting to see some people exit their long positions with the recent Trump administration news?
Volume was above average for the first time in 9 days yesterday
KHC up 5%
MDLZ down 4.5%
TSLA down 1.5%
No news today
Scenarios
Setups
There is a short setup I'd be willing to take and that is at the record highs. I don't see many scenarios where we break record highs and close at them today.
Overview of the week
Trump rally is still on and that didn't
Unfortunately I got stopped out of my swing trade by 3 ticks and if I had gone along with my plan to keep it until the end of the week I would've walked away with 45 more points than I did. Oh well, can't cry about spoiled milk.
4 losers and 1 winner seems bad, but when you are aiming for 40+ pt wins and 4.5 pt losses, then this is going to happen. I need to get better at knowing where to move my stops though in this environment.
Out of those trades:
Excellent trades: 0
Good trades: 4
Ok trades: 1
Bad trades: 0
Really bad trades: 0
Unfortunately 3 ticks made a big difference but I'm not taking bad or really bad trades, so it's a good trend. I adapted to this market better but I still have more room to go.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Only took one trade today, and it looked good at first but then became a loser after some jitters from the fed speaker.
Here's the trade
The setup itself was good. We reached new highs and my initial assessment was correct. My mistake was not reassessing the situation once we reached those new record highs.
Another question is whether the macroeconomic environment is changing?
FOMC minutes are coming out today, will they raise or lower the expectation of a rate hike next month?
Scenarios
Looking back on this, the closest scenario was red, which was pretty spot on apart from closing at daily / record highs.
Setups
First trade taken
So it happened, I finally took a FOMO trade...
I had been doing so well this year on not taking a FOMO trade but I let so many opportunities pass me by and today I just didn't want to anymore.
I looked at the market and there were no strong bull signals, but I said screw it let's buy.
I lost this trade, and honestly I am glad that I did. Sometimes I need the market to slap me in the face for doing something I'm not doing.
Something to watch going forward - I need to keep my cool in the markets and not start to get impatient because of the type of market we are in. We will eventually get out of this creeping bull market and into something more volatile, so don't force trades!
Second trade taken
The market moved down and came down to the ON low area (2 in setups). I observed signs of entry and got in. Typical good trade.
I have left this as a swing trade with my stop just above the break even point. I'm debating whether to bring my stop down to the initial stop ~5334 but I think I'll leave it in case the EU market reacts negatively to the FOMC minutes.
Psychology goals
0 FOMO trades- Failed
0 Emotional trades- Passed
Engage deliberate thinking in all trades- Passed
Do not get greedy with any of your trades- Passed
All trades must be part of plan / scenarios / setups- Passed
Maximum 3 trades today- Passed
Abide by your trade management rules- Passed
Do not break any golden or silver risk management rules- Passed
Set alarms and walk away during non-critical periods- Passed
Do not look at P&L- Passed
Do not trade while the market is flat- Passed
Additional for this week - Do not take any short trades unless things change from a macroeconomic standpoint- Passed
Failed the FOMO goal today, ahh!!!!
See you tomorrow!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity