Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Recovered from afternoon session debacle (-20) with a well executed overnight trade (+26). Taylor rhythm alerted me to sell side bias in the morning and strategy 1 gave me an entry at 2653.5 for a short. Stopped out at 2649 (+18). I was at work while this trade was on and was too conservative with my STOP because I wasn't paying close attention to it (due to being at work).
I had all day to think about how I missed out on a nice move in my direction because of a carelessly placed STOP. For now I've decided to begin outlining a procedure for placing STOPs in my trading plan. I want clear and concise directions for placing stops and trailing them. I want to avoid careless STOP placements.
I was referring to George Douglass Taylor's 3 day cycles. His thesis is that the markets move in these three day cycles that are labeled buy day, sell day, and sell short day. It basically is a structure to trade within that gives you a bias for the day, characteristics for each day, and rules to follow depending on how the day unfolds.
He was a commodities trader in the 50s. His book is called the Taylor Trading Technique. I used his methodology for stocks for 7 or 8 years and am carrying it over to the ES. I like it because it gives me a nice set of rules that help keep me out of trouble. I'm leaning on it quite a bit due to lack of experience with futures.
Evening session trade. Signaled in using Strat 3.1, pull back signal. I moved the STOP up after 10 bars of listless action. If it doesn't work right away, kill it. -10. OK with this trade. Followed my pre-trade procedures and newly minted STOP rules. Rule following is easy paper trading. My goal is to practice following these procedures during paper trade so they become automatic when emotions come pouring in during live. If I stick to the game plan, it's OK to let the chips fall where they may. Anybody have the winning game plan?
No other trades for the day. Too busy at work for the ES.
I got chopped up in yesterday's evening session. Two trades, -15 ticks (not shown).
The way my first trade for the morning session ended made me think a range day was at hand. So I took my second trade with a smaller target in mind and smaller risk. I tightened my STOP up a little and trailed it tightly once my target area was hit at 2642.75. Two day session trades, +19.
I've been reflecting on STOP placement and trailing. Ill be into my trading plan this weekend outlining nuances for STOP management during trend days and range days.
I'm not sure if it's normal for most traders, but exit seems way more difficult than entry...at least for now.
I had no time tonight to prep for tomorrows trade day, so I won't be trading. It's too bad too. Seemed like there were some pretty sweet setups during the evening session, but just a cursory glance.
The exit is what makes the entry profitable or not, as well as what cuts the loss if that's what is needed.
It's a big deal, and it's hard to get it so it works for you, in my experience. (I have a lot of experience with not getting it to work, so I'm sort of an expert on that side of it, not necessarily on the "working" side, though.... )
Strat 1 has a win rate of 85% by itself. My other 4 strategies have a win rate of 25% combined.
I'll have to do a better job of documenting my market reads in this journal. But I suspect I have more of a clear market thesis during Strat 1 entries...at least relative to my other strategies. Three of the remaining four strategies are attempts to catch a pull back during a trend. So I suspect my entries during these trades are sloppy due to FOMO...obviously, at least thus far, my market reads for the 3 ineffective strategies have been wrong. During execution of these strategies I think my thought process is limited to watching the market for an opportunity to get in, while remaining blind to the reasons I should stay out. It's either this or the strategies are just losers.
At any rate...small sample size so far.
I put in a lot of work on my trading plan this weekend mostly pertaining to pre-execution routine (market read, organize info, etc) and STOPs. I will be testing this part of my plan as well. I will be testing to see if my pre-execution routine is repeatable, keeps me loose, mitigates the influence of emotion (yeah I know it will be difficult to do during paper trade), makes money, etc.
Not a whole lot to report...I'll be trading somewhat sporadically due to how busy I am at work. I put on this short last night after being signaled in by Strat 1. The signal made a lot of sense due to the series of lower highs being made. I just longed out too early kind of spastically.
Trade 1: Wasn't my finest moment. I have rules to keep out of selling into demand zones. I took the short, probably due to being tired and seeing something that wasn't there...It's seems so much more clear in hindsight. The trade didn't really go any where so I longed out with a small loss.
Trade 2: I thought I would jump on an early morning trend hoping I could just ride it for the rest of the day. After watching for a little bit, it became clear, there would be no continuation. So I sold for another small loss.
Trade 3: I found a pretty decent spot to sell after price had been rejected up in the 2650 area. The trade worked right away too for an MFE of over 10 points! My goal was to not close out until I saw a compelling sell signal. After a recent bout of impatience I've resolved to let things run a little. SO...the market rewarded my patience today by marching against me without providing a compelling sell signal. I ended up closing for a small gain.
I feel like the market made me look cartoonish today. HAHA! Reflection on today's activity will be had.