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Lots of statements in that article that can be easily refuted/disputed from a purely objective basis, whether or not you "believe" in Bitcoin. Perhaps more importantly, note the author. Rickards has been selling the financial doom narrative for years (and doom sells). He's not a person with any kind of a track record for being "right" on issues related to tech or otherwise. The article's wording is basically a lesson on how to elicit confirmation bias in your readers. Just something to consider.
Seems that ultimately, the viability of BTC or any crypto relies on the beholder. Whether legit in the eyes of the status quo or not... they are not going away any time soon, which further adds to their legitimacy.
Really enjoying and learning a lot from this discussion.
There are extremely pro-crypto people, extremely anti-crypto people, curious people and middle of the road people.
Count me as curiously middle of the road. I may look to trade it, I have given it a try as a payment mechanism, and I remain middle of the road, and curious.
I do hesitate to trade it. So many things have captured the imagination of traders as the next sure thing, and ended the same way, poorly. But I'll probably dip a toe into it just to see.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Indeed, in fact during my MBA I had to submit presentation paper for one of the subjects on "ripple" and when I was doing the due diligence research, it was indeed very appealing.
Their latest page, its a good read. Especially since we can also study XRP movement since I had done that project (in the end of 2016), it wasn't even listed on kraken against USD yet.
That chart looks very similar to how one another fad (which is still prevalent) called penny stocks looks. Its attractive, it gives fuel to our dreams of catching blue whale and riding it to top to become millionaires.
But after 100+ years of stock market history to study, one realizes that blue whale is basically lucky chance and you are likely to end up in the shark mouth.
Why am I rambling? After discussing its improbability as a viable replacement for real currency, at least in current form, its also very interesting to study where it can end up on just internet hype. Its also interesting to study why something which "I thought" had much more viable application in existing real financial world today like this ripple project, garners no love but BTC does.
On that BTC hype note;
My personal view is that BTC might reach $ 100k sooner or later and then tank from there to its pre 2017 levels. But that's just my uneducated view.
I've had too much coffee and staying home is making me crazy, so excuse the rambling
I don't know anything about bitcoin. I can't think of many situations where crypto would be useful in my everyday life. Government issued currency is just way more convenient right now for lots of reasons. Also, with all of the volatility, I don't know how two sides can come together on value when crypto is the medium of exchange.
I think it is fun to think about the reasons why crypto has gained traction though. It definitely seems to satisfy a desire for speculation. But...How can you not hypothesize that, at some level, there has not been an erosion in trust in the institutions that issue currency? On the other hand, gold has always been around for those that had reservations about fiat currency.
To avoid not saying anything ()...I suspect there has been some dissolve in trust in our institutions. Not really of the institutions themselves, but skepticism stemming from a lack of trust in those running the show. Skepticism of those that hold power/authority without leadership ability. Not making a red/blue statement, or a statement about any political party or politician, more of a blanket across the board, across all political parties, and most politicians, type of statement.
I'm not a crypto junky and have huge gaps in my knowledge but this is only my opinion anyway.
Whatever you think about Bitcoin, digital currency AND blockchain technology isn't going anywhere.
The reasons Bitcoin is capped is for the purpose of maintaining it's value. I know people have argued whether that will have it's intended purpose or not but I think it will for one reason... it's the default. People will use it because everyone else uses it. It's the defacto.
It's like Facebook or Instagram or LinkedIn for professionals. You get the idea.
As for Bitcoin I don't know the math but I'd imagine the closer you get to mining the last coins the harder it will get requiring more effort for less payout thus increasing the effort excetra.
I hear they think 2140 the last coin wlll be mined.
But then the value is intrinsic like gold. But liquid gold sort of speak.
As you know, crypto is a new asset class, and I personally think it should be approached that way. I know that the crypto market is positively correlated with the stock market, but just look at BTCs cycles since 2013. There's something here- it's not all "basically lucky chance."
Raoul Pal thinks we're in an "exponential age." That's something I'm not ruling out.
The thing about the question of Bitcoin as a medium of exchange and/or reasonable foundational basis for global financial settlement requires a zoomed out view, IMO. Humans are so good at looking at everything that is wrong with a new concept that they fail to see how it fits into a changing world, not just the world they live in at the moment. When bank notes replaced physical coin, I imagine there was a similar response. I remember when the internet was new and adults in my life were 150% positive that it was only a fad. And when several people in finance told me how and when Amazon would fail because people would NEVER shop online in large numbers. And dismissing Bitcoin even partially because of what "could" happen in 2140 when the last coin is mined "if" Bitcoin is adopted feels a bit like that. It's 2021, people. That's 119 years from now. The Nixon Shock was in 1971. The dollar in its current form is only 50 y/o. Also keep in mind that exponential technologies like the internet have always trended toward decentralization - which is what most early internet adopters assumed it would become - fully decentralized. If you read about the adoption of the HTTP standard, you can see how one small technical aspect led us down a rabbit hole of centralization and the evolution of Big Tech. Without something like blockchain, decentralization simply wasn't technically possible. Yet despite that, the internet still disrupted numerous industries. Bitcoin will likely be no different. With the advent of blockchain, it is only reasonable that an "Internet currency" would be born. And whether or not Bitcoin is ultimately adopted, given the current state of fiat currencies, the amount of global debt, the billions of "unbanked" people in the world, and the rise of populism globally, it is pretty safe to assume that the next major transformation of money will be to one that is controlled by individuals, not governments. One that is transacted over a network that was purpose-built for the transfer of value. One that cannot be seized, censored, manipulated, or debased by a central authority. And one that can be extended to support a multi-planetary civilization since - at some point in the next few decades - we will almost certainly colonize other planets which will ultimately birth new micro-economies. And I can guarantee no one will be taking dollar bills or gold bars to Mars.
And if none of that resonates, I would encourage anyone/everyone to read about what is being developed in the space in terms of banking services, tokenization of assets that will unlock trillions in value, smart contracts which will likely disrupt countless industries, distributed hash table technology to create a truly decentralized web, the list goes on. The brain power of the people developing these technologies is immense. The tulip mania lasted a few months. Bitcoin has existed for 12 years. And if you compare it to the stock market and account for the fact that it trades 24/7 vs 6.5/5, it has over 60 years worth of price action. The comparison is a nice talking point that elicits a lot of head-nodding, but it's a poor comparison. As is labeling it a "ponzi scheme."
Just my two cents. Which I'll leave where they lay.