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Based on the numbers you provide, your Expectancy = (0.65x20 ticks) - (0.35x30 ticks) = 2.5 ticks per trade. Assuming you are paying around $5 per turn on that product, then you are giving up another 0.5 ticks per trade. This puts your net expectancy at 2 ticks per trade.
At that expectancy, it wouldn't be so bad if you had plenty of opportunities in a day to stay ahead of your losses. If your expectancy stays consistent, then you would size up and begin to see a return on your time that is worthwhile. This is more of a scalping/very short term expectancy.
Now, if every once in a while you are able to allow a runner to go for say 2x an average rotation on a 1 min for 30 ticks and that happened in 10% of your winners, then your expectancy looks like (0.1x30 ticks)+(0.55x20 ticks)-(0.35x30 ticks) = 3.5 ticks or a 40% improvement in your expectancy. This is why I scale out. This assumes that you move your stop to entry once the scale happens at 8 ticks and so your loss figures remain the same.
Does that make sense? Now you are digging into the nuances of trade management.
I go with the notice I receive from CME and my clearing firm. It has been shifting lately. A good indication is to also put the current and next month on a quoteboard and track volume as was suggested by others.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
Ok. I see your issue now. I generally go with the last day Friday prior to the expiration month. For example, on Friday, August 29th, 2014, Z4 become front month and U4 became second month.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
The data feed from the S5 Trader platform is unfiltered and has been tested against other broker feeds. However, a broker feed is NOT intended to be a great feed for accurate tick data no matter who the broker is. The reason for this has to do with technology than anything else. The API that manages orders and quotes are not the same as the type of technology that you would have providing your data from DTN IQFeed or others. It would take a lot of typing to explain it, but broker feeds are not ideal to power charts in real time. The S5 Trader's feed is as good as we have tested before we stood behind it.
This is in addition to the fact that you don't get much historical data with a broker feed as well as cash indices like Vix, Transports, etc.
Your comment regarding me not trusting the data is not true. I simply don't compromise when it comes to data and so I go with DTN IQFeed and have for a long time. Their data is automatically equalized and adjusted, I get 120 days of tick data and unlimited 1 min data, etc.
If my data is what I'm trading from, then I choose to get as comprehensive a data set as possible. The S5 Trader feed is not designed for that and shouldn't be. Imagine what it would be like for someone to be downloading 120 days of tick data on the ES while you are trading on that same server. Not fun!
Hi, sir one more follow up question about your videos - awesome stuff and excellent calls!
When you say the market will go up to settle overnight inventories on the short side, you generally mean in the first ten minutes after the 930 open correct? I have noticed sometimes it takes a shorter amount of time then it starts moving in the direction you say overall.
Your style of teaching - relating trading with other aspects of life - is brilliant. It's quite rare to find a person like you with Talent yet Humble & Generous. I learnt a lot from your gracious free teaching and even more from your paid webinars.
It's a shame that I am not in a position to become stage 5 client to get more direct feedback from you as I live in BC, Canada.
I am considering switching from Ninja to Investor RT and begin to atleast use your charts. It's not an easy decision though as I like Ninja's ecosystem and my preferred tools like JigSaw and Rancho.
Is there a way to have your guidance and support without having an account with stage 5? Or atleast access & learn from your feedback to other stage 5 traders? I viewed 3 such videos from your website FT71 and they are priceless!
Only kind thoughts for what you do and don't question your motives for this forum, for trying to change something and for trying to make a difference. I know you put a lot of passion here and having your haters is normal on the success path don't get intimidated by threats.