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Yes, harvest is progressing, and the high estimates for yield get more and more reliable. Whereas some weeks ago I assumed that $10.20 are in the cards, my actual assumption is that we will not close above $10.00 in October or November. Thus I raised my small position (50 %) to a full position by rolling into a lower strike.
I could have doubled the number of call options, but decided to roll for the reasons I described recently.
I will sell the SN P9 before the USDA report which will be published next Wednesday, 11 am Central Time. I intend to hold this "strangle" through the report.
In all recent years when price was relatively low in October (like this year) there was no further major draw down. I do not think that SX will go below 9 this year. There is a major bullish force (large exports) and a major bearish force (yield), which more or less compensate each other. To me it looks like much is already priced in. But the October report is always good for surprizes ...
In case of a bearish reaction to the report the SF C10 should expire worthless, and compensate the loss of the SN P9. (I sell 3 SN P9 for 2 SN C10.) In case of a bullish reaction to the report I will probably have to buy back the SF C10, possibly with a loss. Volatility should come down significantly after the report anyway.
I am also waiting to sell Gold puts in November or December, but will wait for a bottom to form. Inflation should rise in early 2017.
Rolled the CLF C58-63 to the CLG C63-68, taking a loss of approx. 100 %.
Size of the new position is a little bit more than the original position. That means the only target is now to end up with a minor profit on this trade.
CLG is the February contract for WTI Crude Oil. All large brokers should be able to offer this contract. (But perhaps your broker uses a different abbreviation for this contract.)
So TOS (Thinkorswim) tells me because of liqidity issues they only offer CL options 3 months at a time. When November expires they offer Feb.
Thoughts?
During regular trading hours (former pit hours) I never had a problem to get a fill for CL options 4 to 6 months out. There are problems to get a good fill during the overnight hours - but this is the case for all expiry dates of CL options.
I am afraid you have to change your broker if you want to sell these options.