Dark Theme
Light Theme
Trading Articles
Article Categories
Article Tools
Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to
register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.
It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Updated May 26, 2022
Top Posters
looks_one
myrrdin
with 812 posts (1,274 thanks)
looks_two
ron99
with 207 posts (489 thanks)
looks_3
manuel999
with 109 posts (108 thanks)
looks_4
TraderGriz
with 66 posts (26 thanks)
Best Posters
looks_one
SMCJB
with 2.4 thanks per post
looks_two
ron99
with 2.4 thanks per post
looks_3
myrrdin
with 1.6 thanks per post
looks_4
manuel999
with 1 thanks per post
trending_up
335,318 views
thumb_up
2,296 thanks given
group
139 followers
forum
1,598 posts
attach_file
93 attachments
October 14th, 2016, 09:52 AM
Linz Austria
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651
Jerard
I see your point, thanks. May ask you where would you look for fundamentals on 2001 year?
The most important influence on NG price at this time of the year is weather. You could check weather reports of this year. But I doubt that this is of any help as we are not in a position to predict weather perfectly.
Best regards, Myrrdin
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Best Threads (Most Thanked) in the last 7 days on NexusFi
October 14th, 2016, 10:08 AM
Ukraine
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Zaner360
Trading: Options on futures
Posts: 14 since May 2015
Thanks Given: 119
Thanks Received: 6
ron99
The seasonals are
bearish but that always depends on the weather. Colder is
bullish , normal or warmer than normal is bearish.
Production is down but inventory is above 5 yr avg.
Interesting that IM is only $94. If you use 6X IM and exit at 50% drop in net
premium at 30 days then the ROI is 6.5%.
I'd call DCOT bearish because specs are more long than normal.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870
Here is what a spread that was similar did last year. Lost a lot of money.
Referring to NG spread, do i interpreting correctly that spread was sold at ~0.11 while at settlement price (?) 2.180
the short leg premium was 0.5, whereas long leg became worthless? Although, it is interesting that spread was profitable at many points throughout the graph... and how could long leg be worth more than short leg? Or was it 2:1 spread?
October 14th, 2016, 10:23 AM
Cleveland, OH
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
Posts: 3,081 since Jul 2011
Thanks Given: 980
Thanks Received: 5,785
Jerard
Referring to NG spread, do i interpreting correctly that spread was sold at ~0.11 while at settlement price (?) 2.180
the short leg
premium was 0.5, whereas long leg became worthless? Although, it is interesting that spread was profitable at many
points throughout the graph... and how could long leg be worth more than short leg?
Or was it 2:1 spread?
On Oct 13, 2015 (yellow vertical line) futures were 2.869 and the spread was 0.016.
The spread is the green line. It was at 0.130 in mid Dec when futures dropped below 1.900. A large loss.
October 15th, 2016, 10:40 AM
Riga, Latvia
Posts: 1 since Sep 2016
Thanks Given: 47
Thanks Received: 1
myrrdin
The most important influence on NG price at this time of the year is weather. You could check weather reports of this year. But I doubt that this is of any help as we are not in a position to predict weather perfectly.
Best regards, Myrrdin
Want to say big thanks, Myrrdin! Spent several days and studied this thread A to Z. IMO this is a very great way for a beginner to learn.
Thanks and best regards, Romandris
October 15th, 2016, 10:57 AM
Linz Austria
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651
romandris
Want to say big thanks, Myrrdin! Spent several days and studied this thread A to Z. IMO this is a very great way for a beginner to learn.
Thanks and best regards, Romandris
You are welcome. Please feel free to ask questions or discuss your considerations for own trades.
Best regards, Myrrdin
October 17th, 2016, 03:46 PM
NYC, NY
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
Posts: 654 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 545
Thanks Received: 360
Does this match your analysis? Gonna sell puts on a leg down .. since i am hoping for a bounce in Nov.. thoughts?
October 17th, 2016, 04:23 PM
Linz Austria
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651
jokertrader
Does this match your analysis? Gonna sell puts on a leg down .. since i am hoping for a bounce in Nov.. thoughts?
My analysis suggests to sell cattle puts on a leg down, but my analysis was severely wrong recently regarding cattle puts ...
According to MRCI the seasonals should move upwards from early October until 20th of October, than move downwards, and move upwards again after approx. 10th of November. But the daily chart does not correlate well with the seasonal chart this year.
Best regards, Myrrdin
October 18th, 2016, 09:11 AM
Linz Austria
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651
myrrdin
My analysis suggests to sell cattle puts on a leg down, but my analysis was severely wrong recently regarding cattle puts ...
According to MRCI the seasonals should move upwards from early October until 20th of October, than move downwards, and move upwards again after approx. 10th of November. But the daily chart does not correlate well with the seasonal chart this year.
Best regards, Myrrdin
PS: Friday after the close the Cattle on Feed-Report will be published. Volatility will rise towards this report.
These reports are hard to predict. It could make sense to wait until after the report with the trade entry, or to keep lot size small.
October 19th, 2016, 01:57 PM
westhills california US
Posts: 94 since May 2015
Thanks Given: 131
Thanks Received: 20
myrrdin
Rolled the CLF C58-63 to the CLG C63-68, taking a loss of approx. 100 %.
Size of the new position is a little bit more than the original position. That means the only target is now to end up with a minor profit on this trade.
Best regards, Myrrdin
You still got your position on?
Where do you thing we are heading?
Would you say CLG C60-65 is too close before the OPEC meeting?
October 19th, 2016, 02:02 PM
Cleveland, OH
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
Posts: 3,081 since Jul 2011
Thanks Given: 980
Thanks Received: 5,785
rajab
You still got your position on?
Where do you thing we are heading?
Would you say CLG C60-65 is too close before the
OPEC meeting?
I sold the Feb 65-70 spread for 20 cents on Oct 13th.
Last Updated on May 26, 2022