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GREAT VIDEO! I often ask traders when positions go drastically against them do you they want to be right or make money? she just emphasized how this "right" feeling is so strong within humans even if they know down deep they are wrong.
Thanks you for sharing..Fantastique Monsieur!
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I find I am often wrong when I am convinced I am right and I am often right when I think I am wrong. Trading brings this out in me more than any other thing I have ever encountered. Therefore it makes sense to employ more dependency on external factors to validate/invalidate my conclusions.....such as a pattern that repeats over and over. Do I take the trade because I am right or do I take the trade because I can depend on the external factor? ie, the pattern statistically repeating itself again.
Today I found myself constantly wrong. Thinking certain things could not be happening despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. My brain said I was right but evidence proved me wrong. Which should I believe? In trading, its trade what you see, not what you want to see or think you should see. If there is conflict between the two, there should be no trading.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Got up a little bit today and then totally lost the rhythm.....hit my daily stop loss before 8:30AM my time.
Took several break downs.....the market was going down right? Yes it was, but got stopped out each time.
I am NOT a break out trader. I hate them and I have a mental hang up about them as well implanted by the guy that got me in the business.....He was right about so many things that ever time I take a break out trade, I hear his words; "break out traders get stopped out a lot". But today I was having so much trouble reading PA that I just opted for the easiest to see trade....a break out. Duh.....
So poor trading today. Live to fight another day. I am testing my PA reading ability with no indicators on the chart currently. Its not going so well.
Cheers
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
I watched it today over lunch. Yes, she is not exciting but it is only 20 minutes and in the end you should likely be questioning everything. Re-examining your beliefs is never an easy thing, but I think this proves how it is a necessity. I also think it underlines that being wrong or right should be de-emphasized, something that carries over into trading as well as the belief or need of always wanting to be right is a costly one.
So what I took away from this was simply to "trust, but verify" as Ronald Reagan would say. In this case, I should trust some conclusions of my methodology but I need to verify them as a separate measure -- an external behavior or method that is not influenced by the original results.
I did a couple of sim trades after my stop was hit. I have been using my normal trading method and screening other ideas on the side and at night after hours. I am convinced that over time, the big money is made by those that hold trades much longer than what I currently do. So while I use something I sweated over during the summer and it does work reasonable well when I am executing well, I am looking at ways to increase the targets and decrease the trades.
The reason for this is simple, less trades equals fewer opportunities for the market to take my money and if done properly, much larger profits per trade. Scalping for ten ticks at a time is effective when I am really in the zone and really bad when not. A method that reduces the number of trades, has set rules for stop placement and target placement would really reduce the opportunities for botched trades if I am not in the zone.
Let it be know right now, I have no intention of trading anything other than what I have built over the last few months. In fact, since it is a scalper system, I think it could be modified to get into these other kinds of trade with a little more finesse but at this point I am just researching. I have some ideas and once they crystallize, I'll post some of them.
Today I looked at a couple of straight S/R trades on a 5 minute chart. One was for 50 ticks and the other one for 40 ticks. Both worked pretty well. I did use my 6 range chart for more precise entries. This could have been luck or possibly the beginnings of something. Only time will tell.
Eventually the goal is to eliminate the reliance on moving averages. I think often times they add risk instead of reducing it.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris