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Several weeks ago, the confluence at the 4325 level on the index was identified as being potential support, and indeed, it has turned out to be that so far. Going forward this week, this is the level to keep an eye on. Above is bullish, below is bearish on a weekly basis.
Overall bull market, in a consolidation range / retracement for the last month.
Support area below: 4270 - 4220 , potentially all the way down to 4190's.
Most recently: strong selloff, followed by VWAP band rejection and consolidation into fridays close at the monthly PP.
Possible scenarios:
1) moving higher into monthly VWAP area at 4380's ; from there
a. push down into monthly lows / support area 4270 - 4220/ 4190's
b. break above to retest monthly highs at 4470's
i. break and push towards 4570
ii. failure and retracement back to the downside 4330's, 4270 thereafter
2) reversal lower at around monthly pp & VWAP band, 4325
a. double/triple bottom 4275's
i. push to top 4470's and new highs 4570
ii. failure and continuation into and potentially below the support zone
b. break of monthly lows
i. support coming in between 4270 and 4190's ; push to the highs
ii. break of support, shooting for 4100.
21/34 EMAs crossed in 30mins (21 crossing 34 up ), but the long entry should not be entered need to wait with patience. The reason is Stochastics are in overbought zone and need to wait until it comes near 50 levels. I will not be trading in my live account due to funds/risk management but this system I used in India for positional trading with 2 lots on Nifty Index.