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Bought back the Gold puts with a small profit of 16 %. Gold showed weakness the recent two days, although Crude moved strongly upwards, and the US$ moved downwards yesterday. Looks to me as if Gold could move further downwards.
Sold NGh7p250p230 spread today. I know I am late to the party but I doubt NG is dropping much anytime soon with the cold weather forecast for the rest of Dec.
Surprisingly IM for this spread is only $109. I sold it for $90. Being ultra conservative I am using 10X IM because of the low IM.
If I exit at 50% drop in 30 days the monthly ROI would be 3.0%.
The risky side of me bought NGh7c600 today. We'll see if in next 2 weeks I get enough of a pop in NG to make these long calls make a profit. Three weeks ago they were 0.010. Now they are trading at 0.050.
Here is how the NGh contract performed when US Dec temps were below normal.
Here is how much US avg temps in Dec were below normal
2009 -3.04 degrees
2010 -0.21
2013 -1.62
This year looks to be tracking similar to NGh10 and NGh14. Those were the coldest years of these 3. NGh14 went up 40 cents from 12/8 to its' peak. NG inventory in Nov 2013 was right at the 5 yr avg before the cold wave hit.
Myyride, Ron or others. Do you guys hedge your positions with other commodities? historic expample-in these not so historic times?what do you consider small position% wise. And how would you take the hedge of if any?