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Trading: The one I'm creating in the present....Index Futures mini/micro, ZF
Posts: 2,311 since Nov 2011
Thanks Given: 7,341
Thanks Received: 4,518
IMHestO I think what Mark is saying is having an edge a high probability of something happening for example gap close, which I'm currently nuts-o about in ZF, 5 yr T notes, after 90% completing an 11 yr research project (11 yrs of data, and I say 90% because I have to calculate gap size yet and I have thought of a couple other small things to add in as well) which I posted in the Master research thread about 1.5 wk ago. OIR on ZF is over 90% something like 93% and gap close is 77%. Crazy high IMHO never seen it this high in NQ or ES. Have been longing for these kind of probabilities for a long time. And in ZF I have seen gap 'almost' fill missing by a tick or two and this is one of the other stats I'm adding in after I pull out the gap size and I suspect a slightly higher gap close which must be called 'almost gap close/gap close' I suppose.
So a high probability edge like stated above. But understanding that every second on the clock that ticks by with every trade that occurs is unlike and completely different from all the seconds that came before it. The traders are different. Or at the very least their ideas change the traders with the potential to interact change reasons change there are so many variables it's hard to conceive. Coffee gets spilt and George Soros' trader burns himself just when he was about to enter on ES so he doesn't. Point is, like Mr Douglas says, every moment in the market is unique. It's impossible to know the sequence of win losses of any market edge like the gap close on ZF I'm in love with...lol. I also want to see if I can pull out the longest streaks of gap fill and no gap fill over the 11 yrs of data and see how things happened.
The distribution of win losses for any edge is random. Mark has, or maybe I should say his wife/widow, has a seminar on video Mark did I have watched maybe about 10 times now and I pulled the audio off it and listen to it on the treadmill. I like to say it's Trading in the Zone come to life the way he presents the material. I recommend this I feel I have gained so much from it I'm a different person.
So we have to recognize our edge define the risk and enter .....over and over again and again...... Without thinking we know what's going to happen next because you can't it's impossible.
Can't wait to do ZN research this Friday.
Can't wait to trade these stats should be only a few weeks out now, if that.
Ron
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
...My calamity is My providence, outwardly it is fire and vengeance, but inwardly it is light and mercy...
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
Well I would say definitely that can be very true - one can be a great analyst and not necessarily be a good trader.
Good analysis (or something else for creating your edge) is a necessary but not sufficient condition.
I read a in book (perhaps George Angell - Sniper Trader?) a story of a guy who was a great bond analyst - could pick the high and low to the tick (or is it 1/32nd? - LOL) but never made and money.
George teamed him up with a great trader and together the two made big money.
From RTH (regular trading hours) to RTH so for example yesterday's RTH range, sticking with ZF as an example, RTH is based off the pit open in NY for 5 yr T-Notes futures and for me is 7:20am Chicago time. To pit close at 2:00pm CT. So if the open of today is within yesterday's range YH>=O>=YL then it is OIR.
Have to make pork chops right now and vegetables but a market edge is the same as the coin flip but both over a large sample size have a probability.....coin flip being 50/50 but you can't say you will get in the next 10 flips all heads it's impossible to predict but you can guess but that's all it is is a guess and you might be right and you might be right twice in a row or three times and then you will start to think you know what is going to happen next so (slightly moving over, slowly, back into trading territory) you will be loose(er) with your risk because it doesn't really matter, does it, because you start to believe you know what is going to happen next and you also hesitate because you "know" you can get
A better price if you do.
Sorry More later....
Ron
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
...My calamity is My providence, outwardly it is fire and vengeance, but inwardly it is light and mercy...
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
Funny you should say that... just yesterday I was thinking "what if there was a team made up by people with different skillsets, one great at charting, one great with Order Flow, one great with pulling the trigger, and so forth"... someone did something similar by the sound of it...
Never take advice form someone else unless you're sure he knows more than you. Always do your work and study and then trust your own judgement. The only exception to this is to have a partnership where one man decides on when to buy (the entry) and the other on when to sell.
(so analysis and trading )
-Of course Gann was in the days before computers, algos and work sharing and was referring to trading on tips
Trading: The one I'm creating in the present....Index Futures mini/micro, ZF
Posts: 2,311 since Nov 2011
Thanks Given: 7,341
Thanks Received: 4,518
For right now all I have time for unfortunately is something short and I think the best is this video from Mark Douglas... This is part of the content I have watched many many times easily over 10. I feel we human need repetition to help the information really sink in and because part of us. There is a wonderful yet short story I love from something very dear to me that goes like this...
Ron
...My calamity is My providence, outwardly it is fire and vengeance, but inwardly it is light and mercy...
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)