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USDA report was bearish, but the question remains how to trade it. I do not have a strong opinion on the row crops, and, thus, do not intend to trade corn or beans in the near future.
Bought a very small lot of MWU just before the close. Will hold it until a close below 690.
HRS stocks are the lowest in 10 years. Harvested acres were not adjusted lower in this report, but will have to be reduced in September.
Still hold a large position of WH19-WN18. Intend to sell the position on one further move downwards somewhere between 50 and 55.
Currently I am building a longterm position in CZ8-CZ9. Basis is seasonals, assumption of acreage moving from corn to soybeans in South Americas, and speculation on weather problems in South America some time during the crop cycle.
I would also be interested in the SN8-SX8 spread, but only at a significantly lower prive level.
During Asian trading hours volume is very limited. Thus, I would not pay a lot of attention to these price moves. In my opinioin, the most important price in the grains market is the closing price.
I hold careful long positions in corn and soymeal:
CZ18-CZ19
SMZ17, protected by long put options.
Main reasons for these positions are seasonals and the consideration that La Nina might come back during winter and take care of a dry summer in Brazil.
Additionally I hold a long position in oats. This trade is also supported by seasonal charts until at least end of October.
I still hold the WH19-WN18 spread with a target of above 50.
I trade at CBOT. C is the old symbol for corn that was used in the pit. In the electronic markets ZC was introduced to make a difference. I still prefer the old symbols, which are still widely used in publications.
Sorry - I cannot publish the seasonal charts I use. They are from a paid service (MRCI), and I never publish such information. You could also check seasonalgo for seasonal charts.
no problem for not publishing the seasonal charts.
I see that you long the CZ18 - C Z19 spread.
I see that historic low around 3Q16 for this spread was negative 18.
And you probably long around negative 16.
Seems like you got a good price. Am I right?