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I have a full time job and the quizzes are from occasional demo or simulated trading. Moreover, the trades are filtered as I post only most obvious situations and winners. The intent is to demonstrate Wyckoff tape reading logic, plus some entertainment for me. I've also noticed that this thread makes me more conscious of trades I prefer to take and helps me to find similarities between my trades.
Your suggested format could have been done on a daily chart of some instrument, however, that would have little value for me at the moment as I try to teach myself to find good and obvious trades not to have an opinion about any chart I look at.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Is it a quiz? I'm not against quizzes by other participants but I'd appreciate if you keep format the same, i.e. "Quiz #: up or down?". This way the thread is very easy to read by any participant and also I and @Mich62 will know that we have to wait and don't post any new quizzes until the current one is answered.
Thank you for posting a weekly chart -- it's much more apples to apples, with the obvious exception of the end of year dropoff in volume, which should of course not be used in any analysis as the decline there is almost completely due to seasonal effects.
Since trading is much more about risk management (how much you lose when you're wrong is what we have to decide in trading, not just a binary up/down guess, when trading outrights, vs options), if forced to trade this (it's not really a good setup for me), I'd do:
* buy at market here, ~52.50 or so
* add at 56
* stop out all at ~47 (very predictable)
* take half off at 62, see where we go on the other half
Reasons:
* This market is trading *above* the close of the two heavy sell weeks in early Feb and mid March
* Early April saw a search lower for buyers on reasonably good but declining volume. The ranges were compressed, and even with the lower volume, this is somewhat of a higher effort, low result outcome due to the small ranges.
* 6th bar from the right took back 4 weeks of selling, and have been consolidating since.
This is not a *strong* buy for me, because I can see a strong case for a rotation down. But, I wanted to jump in here to see if I can make some sim profit ;-)
There’s a lot of supply in that big down day in March. Up waves have shortened while down waves are longer. Ease of Movement down as apposed to the last up wave which is struggling to go up.
The chart you showed illustrates one of my principle difficulties with this method, in that I often see distinct patterns on top of each other. I get that the markets are fractal and this is expected, but it adds a layer of complexity that is often missed in explanations of the method. For example, which one of these is the correct interpretation?
I've heard that the larger structure takes precedence, but regardless, the downmove at 48.00 towards the right looks weak, so I would say up.
Great call on mentioning David (RIP) in this thread - he's the one that got me started with Wyckoff, which I'm just recently trying to relearn.
When trading with Wyckoff, do you guys still use point and figure for setting targets?