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Thank you so much for sharing with us. I've read most of the thread (from beginning to page-350 something and then from 411 to today).
I'm trying to set up a tool that would allow us to test different strategies using data from XLS-Span a bit more efficiently. One of the issues I'm running into is determining margin for spreads. I'm going to reach out to @Dudetooth in the PC-Span thread to get his thoughts on that.
Thanks again.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I do not know of any place in the world-wide net that shows information of important reports for all commodities we trade.
Most of these reports are on a regular base and announced many months in advance (eg. USDA, WASDE, CoF, monthly hogs report, weekly reports on CL and NG). You will find them on the respective internet sites, and can include them in your calendar.
In some well known publications on commodities (eg. Hightower Report) you will receive this information for the next report for each of these commodities. Some Brokers disribute Hightower Report free of charge.
Hightower sells an annual pocket calendar, which includes this data, for $5. I never bought it, and, thus, cannot confirm that all reports are included.
ad 1.: I buy back the ES puts at 50 %. As Ron (and others) have shown that this is the most profitable way.
ad 2.: Yes, there are more losers. But the number or the percentage of losers is not an important criterium for success in trading. Many of my losers are significantly lower than 100 % of the entry price. The number of losers is small. One of the major reasons in the past was the move below the 200 dma, and this did not happen often in recent years.
Do you also use 50% for your other commodity trades as week, eg for CL, grains, metals, etc? I assume you also use the 200% exit criteria for the non-ES trades as well.
Yes, I use the 200 % exit criteria (and further criteria, based on fundamentals) in the way I described it in the thread "Diversified Option Selling Portfolio" for all commodities.
I exit these trades at some place between 10 % and 50 % of the original value. Please find details in the thread "Diversified Option Selling Portfolio". In case there remain open questions, please ask again.
Are you thinking about like today and volatility is up? If so then I would use my quote provider's delta and use the same parameters of 5 delta for my short and 1.5 delta for my 2 longs while figuring that margin will be higher than yesterday's amount.
The Aug 2025 EW3 put was 4.8 delta but is now (noon ET) about 6.5 delta. So a 2000 strike would roughly be about 5 delta now.
I would not change my DTE. I would stay in the 90-120 DTE range.