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For the life of me I just don't know what is currently driving the market rally. I know this is not the Forum to discuss speculation on stock market price but I am curious to know if people are treating this rally different from others. My current position is very close to aging out so I am debating on whether to open another one of the same size or wait for the inevitable volatility Spike that comes late summer or early fall.
I do not think anybody can predict when the volatility spike will come.
Ron's trading concept and other similar concepts work, because he is invested long enough to make enough profits to "survive" the draw-downs profitably. I do not think it will work if you omit some trades.
The only point one can discuss in my opinion is where to place a stop.
I have one account that trades almost exclusively my ES put spreads.
Starting June 29, 2016 it made 20 spread trades. All except the last one was short one and long 2 using 6xIM. Last one was short 2 and long 3 using 4xIM.
Through July 12, 2017 the account is up 21.8% actual. No losing trades.
It's not the sky high ROI from the past but it is very good compared to other forms of investment. If I tell someone who is not a trader that I am only making 21% per year they ask me where do I send the money to to start.
I have learned over the years to throttle down my expectations and be happy with 20% per year. Especially since it is low risk and not many sleepless nights.
I actually just bought an RV and will be starting to travel and trade from the RV. Made sure it has Wifi extender and 4G so I have good internet in many places.
MY ES put strategy, which doesn't take a lot of hands on daily effort, should work well when traveling. My cellphone has an app from a broker with real time futures prices so I can watch even when not near RV.
Earnings continue to be strong. PE is on the high side, but no where near as much as the dot com bubble. Why do you say there will be an inevitable volatility spike in late summer or fall? There are no seasonal tendencies in vix.