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Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,777 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,560
Thanks Received: 3,161
Still here.
Still trading.
Just 1 trade. SPY 100.
Entry is discretionary based on EMA crossing - Usually @ RTH open.
Exit - EMA exit signal but usually hold till End of Day. All in and all out. Keeping it simple again.
This is due to the fact that my day job doesn't allow me to monitor my position. I'm using this data to assess my edge with the added bonus of improvement in my discipline.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,777 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,560
Thanks Received: 3,161
Stats were neutral and mixed today.
However, I didn't want to stand aside and chose to go LONG. I was well awre that I was bottom fishing which is generally not a good idea.
My counter-trend trade long has one simple rule. If a new low is made after my entry, I'm out.
I applied that rule today and became flat quickly. Though price moved in my favor eventually, I have no regrets as the odds of trend continuation is always higher than reversal.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,777 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,560
Thanks Received: 3,161
My old habit of letting an intra-day position to a swing trade is back. However, I'm not too pissed off with myself as it was intentional. My regular job included some day AND night shifts over the last few days. This meant very erratic screen time and hence I decided to let my position to run it's course.
Despite a big MAE, it's a profitable trade as I had a clear stop above Friday's high and clear target of swing low. Target met today.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,777 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,560
Thanks Received: 3,161
My favorite trading environment is here.
During weak bullish environment, i.e above 200 DMA but below 10 DMA, my bearish bias and EOD execution has a much better success rate.
For instance, the odds of ES closing lower intraday is >60% compared to <35% in a strong bullish environment. This is from a very respectable sample of 4000 days!
The odds of price closing in the extreme is also much higher. This rewards my style of holding my position till the end of the day.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,777 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,560
Thanks Received: 3,161
Quick follow up from my previos post about market conditions and the expected price moves.
Graph 1 shows the price movement during strong bullish market condition. Compare this to the second graph of a weak bullish market and it's pretty obvious that big moves i.e >1% are lot more likely. This means more volatility and hence smaller posistion size.