It took more than 10 years to trade like this.

I can look at this beauty all night


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My nikkei trading is going to take an extra day or 2 as phillipcapital.com is unable to provide me with CQG data for Osaka stock exchange. Luckily I found another broker yesterday and funded my account today. Hopefully everything will be up and running by the end of this week.

In the meantime, whilst the world markets are slipping back from ATH, ES is in her own lala land. I don't mind as long as she is dancing.

Yesterday was a good day. Eventhough price went much beyond my expectation, I had no regrets. I had a plan, executed it as per the signals, grabbed my profits and stopped trading after EU close. I can only take what she gives me when I'm trading.

Moving forward, my daily routine is going to look like this. Trade Nikkei225 mini from 9 to 11:30 Japan time, then DAX from 9-11:30 Central European time and finally ES from 9 to 11:30 Eastern time. Essentially I'm trading 3 big indices during their Pre-Lunch trading. The main question is how I deal with winners by the end of that period. Do I let it run or square off. Not sure yet but I have no doubt that I won't let losers stay with the hope of turnaround.

HumbleTrader 

My nikkei trading is going to take an extra day or 2 as phillipcapital.com is unable to provide me with CQG data for Osaka stock exchange. Luckily I found another broker yesterday and funded my account today. Hopefully everything will be up and running by the end of this week. In the meantime, whilst the world markets are slipping back from ATH, ES is in her own lala land. I don't mind as long as she is dancing. Yesterday was a good day. Eventhough price went much beyond my expectation, I had no regrets. I had a plan, executed it as per the signals, grabbed my profits and stopped trading after EU close. I can only take what she gives me when I'm trading. Moving forward, my daily routine is going to look like this. Trade Nikkei225 mini from 9 to 11:30 Japan time, then DAX from 9-11:30 Central European time and finally ES from 9 to 11:30 Eastern time. Essentially I'm trading 3 big indices during their Pre-Lunch trading. The main question is how I deal with winners by the end of that period. Do I let it run or square off. Not sure yet but I have no doubt that I won't let losers stay with the hope of turnaround.

Have you found trading the pre-lunch hours to be best ?

1 Minute Man 

Have you found trading the pre-lunch hours to be best ?

Absolutely. First and foremost, that's when 'volume' happens. I would say at-least 40% of 24 hours volume happens in the 1st 3 hrs. For instance, MES traded approx. 700k yesterday and the EU session had 250k. Though the end of the day has a big spike, I found it difficult to trade as lot of hedging and squaring off happens.

Secondly, opening hours has consistently high ATR. That means, swings are easier to trade, as long as risk is managed well. Yesterday was a bit of an anomaly as post EU had big swings but yet 10 pts ATR in 30 mins is not bad in pre-lunch sessions. Infact, low ATR during peak hours itself is quite helpful as it often means, professional players are 'accumulating' without moving the price much and one can expect a trend move subsequently.

Finally, anecdotally, that's the time professionals 'play'. I heard and read in several interview and books but can't be sure of this.

Obviously we have to choose the time that works for us but moderate our expectations as per the price action during that timeframe.

HumbleTrader 

Absolutely. First and foremost, that's when 'volume' happens. I would say at-least 40% of 24 hours volume happens in the 1st 3 hrs. For instance, MES traded approx. 700k yesterday and the EU session had 250k. Though the end of the day has a big spike, I found it difficult to trade as lot of hedging and squaring off happens. Secondly, opening hours has consistently high ATR. That means, swings are easier to trade, as long as risk is managed well. Yesterday was a bit of an anomaly as post EU had big swings but yet 10 pts ATR in 30 mins is not bad in pre-lunch sessions. Infact, low ATR during peak hours itself is quite helpful as it often means, professional players are 'accumulating' without moving the price much and one can expect a trend move subsequently. Finally, anecdotally, that's the time professionals 'play'. I heard and read in several interview and books but can't be sure of this. Obviously we have to choose the time that works for us but moderate our expectations as per the price action during that timeframe.

Thank I appreciate it

Why probabilistic trading blunts my emotional response?

I was wondering why I did NOT feel regret after missing a good chunk of bullish move yesterday. Though I grabbed close to 20 points, the range was pretty huge at 70. The reason is probabilistic trading.

My analysis was based on the fact that the last 2 days had ATR of 45 points. Historically, they tend to compress as we probe higher at ATH. So I lowered my expectation to 30s. This was supported by the stats too. Though I analysed a much longer period, let's keep it simple and focus on the last 10 trades under similar conditions.

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As you can see, it's predominantly bullish, but the gains are generally smaller, except yesterday. Hence, I know that it was an outlier and it's much easier to accept once you know that it doesn't happen very happen. However, I also know that those outliers make the difference between a good player and an out-standing player. I am focusing more on grabing those too and constantly working on my execution strategies.

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June 18 Recap

My expectation of 'compressed' and small day range played out yesterday with a daily range of paltry 20 pts.

Though I had a strong bullish bias as ES is at all time high, the stats were neutral. That means I was allowed to short and that's the only opportunity I got during EU hours.

Unlike my previous heroic and stupid perma-fadic behaviour, I was more careful and nuanced this time. Only after getting double confirmation that big players were active @ the bad omen 5555, I went short and leaned against them. Made a quick 8 points. I didn't overstay my welcome or double up my size and left hastily. After years of battle scars, I learnt that that's the right thing to do when you are dancing counter-trend.


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It's official. Interactive brokers data is a pile of garbage.

Whilst waiting for CQG data for Nikkei225 from Osaka exchange, I tried IBKR.

I'm not a tech geek to understand how data is transmitted or processed but the way IBKR deal with VOLUME data is totally useless. When Sierra is running, the volume drops to less than 20% of current trading volume. However, the historical volume and tick data is being displayed correctly. You are right .

The only fix to this to close Sierra every few minutes, delete the data file from my PC and re-open Sierra. By this way you are downloading ALL the data everytime and hence you are uptodate with the PAST information. However, the current/present flow of volume data is useless.

HumbleTrader 

The only fix to this to close Sierra every few minutes, delete the data file from my PC and re-open Sierra. By this way you are downloading ALL the data everytime and hence you are uptodate with the PAST information. However, the current/present flow of volume data is useless.

That is not sustainable for your sanity and will probably cause IBKR download issues at some point since you're re-downloading *everything*.

Try this instead, it will be much quicker, though it's still a bit of a pain.

In SC, go to Global => Customize Chart Shortcut Menu. On the left, find "Delete and Download Data" (I think it will be under one of the Edit menus) and add it to the menu.

Now, when you want to re-download data, right-click on the chart at the bar you want to re-download data from, and choose "Delete and Download Data." If you click on the 8:45 bar and re-download at 9:00, then next time you only need to re-download from 9:00 onward, and so on.

Thanks . Much appreciated.

Hopefully I don't have to do this for too long and expect my CQG to be up and running by the end of the week. BTW, AMP did approve my application as there were some regulatory changes in Canada and they accept our applications now.