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With all due respect. The 10,000 hour to master a craft does definitely NOT apply in learning to trade. You can maybe double or triple that amount and still no guarantees
If you have a mentor that is “ making millions” whilst you are losing money, I suggest you see some of his audited accounts for proof. Or get a refund. He sounds like a fraud.
Well it's no wonder people get so confused at how to trade. Just look at this thread and the multitudes of fingers pointing in different directions all trying to get you to the same place. So what direction shall I point my finger? Directly at you.
If you are truly profitable in Sim but not in live then you need to analyze every trade you have taken to find out what is different between the two. Is it your entry? Your stop loss? Your exit? Your mental state? etc etc etc etc etc etc. Analyze it to the n'th degree. Sometimes it is just a subtle hesitation that gets you in later than when you are trading sim that makes all the difference in the trade.
Maybe you don't need to turn this 750 foot long boat completely around to keep it off the rocks, just turn to the right a few degrees.
I am not familiar with some of the techniques you mention, but there are situations you describe ring some bells.
- "been margin called" -> This may be a sign you are over trading or risking more than you should. Check some money management books. The book "Money Management Strategies for Futures Trades" by Prof. Nauzer J. Balsara is a true gem "A Trader's Money Management System" by Bennet A. McDowell also has good information. If you don't read any money management then stick to the 2% rule then, basically never risk more than 2% in any single trade. Keep in mind the old saying that your main goal initially it is not to get rich, but to survive the markets.
- "I have weeks, like last week (1/7/18), where I am immensely profitable, followed by this week, where I have lost almost every trade for 3 consecutive days" -> This is common. I have been there many times and in many cases it can be avoided:
-- Many future markets are very seasonal and what worked great for 2 or 3 months may not work at all the rest of the year. Check this site: equityclock.com. My trading results have improved significantly (fewer but higher quality trades) since I am paying close attention to seasonality patterns.
-- You also mentioned the "ES". The "ES" is one of the most volatile markets out there so when things go in your direction you make good money, but when the wind changes your stops get triggered quite often and your account bleeds. About the ES also consider that in these times un huge uncertainty the risk increase dramatically, that is why the brokers also increased the margins for the equity symbols, ES among them. Anytime the markets are in the changing from bullish to bearish or vice versa that is when most of us loose money, because what used to work well, in the markets case for years now, stops working.
- You also mentioned continuously improving. It sounds to me like chasing the perfect setting. I my opinion you will never get there because as you already experienced when you get there everything changes. If you are not doing so I strongly suggest to do a lot of walk forward optimization. Simulated or paper trading are simply not good enough. Learn about walk forward optimization. Many times it is very hard to get something that works, but your chances of succeeding are much higher if your strategy survives different walk forward scenarios. In this front what you can do depends on the platform you use. To learn about it I recommend "The Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies" by Robert Pardo, this is another great book that takes time to digest but it is totally worth the time and money.
If you want to go over some ideas or need an analysis partner I am available on wednesdays.......just let me know....we can do a screen share session.......
Your trading can be refined. I think you are on the right path and with some stringent rules, you will be profitable.
1. Wait for bars to close- I see you buying before the bar closes. You don't know what the bar looks like before it closes.
2. ALWAYS buy on top of a BULL bar. NEVER on top of a bear bar.
3. If bull closes near its top but not too high in the range, it is higher quality bar. Could possibly increase your risk capital.
4. H2 (Al Brooks's 2nd entry) is the most reliable stop entry.
5. Always be aware of Always-in direction. Never buy when Always-in is short, for example.
6. Avoid tight trading ranges and flat EMA. You can get chopped to pieces, as can be seen from one of your graphs.
7. If trades run away from you, forget them. You only need 2-3 good trades a day & swing them. Or switch to always-in trading.
8. Only use stop orders. No limit orders (too advanced). Possibly pepper in some follow-thru buy-the-close.
I spend 2 hours every day after trading hours to annotate my intraday chart. I keep a personal blog of everything on the intraday chart, and all my trades, why they worked or not.
Suggest printing a lot of historical charts and annotating them as well.
I trade 5-min. charts, Al Brooks style. Only 20EMA on the chart and support/resistance from yesterday, etc.
Good luck. I am writing this during trading day. Hope have some more input later...
I concur with several other commenters. If you are looking at a volume-based chart, you are not looking a 'price action'. You are looking at 'volume action'. It is not reasonable to assume that patterns of volume behave the same way as patterns of price. Price action is about movement of price over time. There might be patterns in 'volume action' that are tradable, but I've never heard of anyone analyzing that.
Personally, I find non-time-based charts to mislead. A renko chart showing a 10 point rally over 3 seconds looks identical to a 10 point rally that took 3 hours, but I'd expect radically different reactions to those two moves. But you'd never know it from looking at a renko chart.
A fairly casual look at your screen shots suggests to me that fear is making you delay entry so long you're going in the right direction at the wrong time. However, that's based on me looking at price/time charts for 5 years, for about the same amount of time each day that you have been for the last year. If it's really because your signals are telling you to enter then, then they're not good signals, despite your verbal description of your approach, which sounds perfectly fine.
Someone suggested going 3 months profitable in sim and without seeing new problems before venturing into live trading again. I agree with that. Sure, lots of people say Sim is a waste, because of the radically different emotional reaction to using real money, but if you're going to use price action, you really need to be looking at price/time charts, which means you'll be taking steps back and need confirmation that your trade signals actually work with price action charts. You might also consider adding a good DOM ladder to fine-tune your analysis of the action.
I was just thinking that. I'm truly grateful for all the answers, but every individual has their own custom fit strategy that works for them, and there are too many different alleys for me to go down. I think I've narrowed down my problems to entry and chop, but I think my mental state could be playing a large factor as well.