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I tried a few dwing trades in oil and is very tough to guess both the entry level and the stop if you can't watch the screen. Ive noticed that it might be doable if you can base your entries and stops on the 4hr bar, but of course you need higher risk tolerance. Not sure about NG, but maybe check out the 4hr and see if it makes sense
My bias is based on weekly daily and Hourly and all other factors such as Weekly and Monthly VWAP. Once I decides that I can enter with one lot only as I want give room to add if it goes against me. My stop is also based on the location where my thesis would prove wrong. My entries are based on volume chart (Actually doesn't matter which time frame), I prefer price to be bellow daily VWAP and have negative CD. I am very comfortable for counter trend trades with scale in. But with trades with trend and entries near vwap's I have to face whipsaws.
I am not sure if I improved or not here is my January profit distribution. I don't think I take my trading seriously or just lost in too much analysis.
Pros
1. Less number of trades
2. Percentage of profitability
3. Except for few huge losses at the beginning (I have a special reason for those losses which I don't want to reveal as it's not the right way of doing things), in general less losses.
Cons
1. Cutting winners short after all that analysis because of fear.
2. Missing out on easy trades.
3. Still trying to do some counter trend trades.
4. Afraid to increase the size.
One GOLD (MGC) short @1243 area and it immediately went in my favor but unfortunately I just one micro contract, I took profits on this one once price crossed above monthly VWAP.
Multiple Natural Gas Trades (NG) - Not bad
I was long oil at 52.50 knowing that I am trying to catch falling knife but planned to add multiple contracts but had to get out before the report at 52.85 (Hindsight, I am a fool...).
Now, I am short oil at 53.05, again planning to add at levels, if this grinds in here I have to take the loss. Reason for the short is monthly vwap, I was blindsided by oil report overnight but it didn't hit my disaster stop, this is exactly the reason why I have a scale in strategy and this is the exact reason I hate trading near VWAP's.
I want trade two contracts but If afraid with my swing trading nature I might get hurt. I feel I am not going anywhere. I don't know how to tackle this issue.
Luckily I re-covered losses on my short at 53.05 and closed that short at 52.92. I should have closed it at ADR_L at 52.76 but thought it might puke into Europe close and it never did.
Now I am long oil at 52.85 to see if it got any legs to move over 53.20 or this down move will continue. I am having a tight stop at 52.65 (I will try my best not to fiddle with my stop ).
Again this came back to monthly VWAP which is not a good setup to trade.
I have to let go of my fear of shorting indices, I missed an easy SD3 short on mini Russel. I guess it might give me another chance let's see.
Still in this NG trade looking for fill the gap on the upside. Shouldaaa couldaaa added this morning as nothing changed in the analysis but it looks my brain is not ready for that. I still can add above VWAP on NG and hope but this morning would have been better entry.
This oil is behaving differently these days and I generally don't trade report so I don't have any position in it. My hand is itching to short indices via mini Russel but damn can't pull the trigger.
Edit: Closed that NG long not liking the order flow will wait for reentry at better prices...Shorted TF at 1395.50
Edit: LOL, looks like they were just looking for me to short it so that they can rip it...this is exact reason why I hate trading indices.