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I was trying to figure my way through the ES as a scalper. My finances in 01/2014 were gone from medical bills and divorce. I have chronic pain going on 20 years. Every year it gets a little worse. It's my back and a wheel chair soon.
I am using my disability check and not paying the mortgage. Right at the beginning I was doing below break even. I was playing one contract and being super selective. I demo'd for 6 months before cash and around 1400 I would fund my account. I had 900 before I was locked out. Sometimes an hour, sometimes a month but zero profit until 2 years in, 2016.
I have off the charts(.9997) pattern recognition skills. I had built a simple screen. I started to notice that if certain things happened, simultaneously, across two different screens(split screen side by side), on being 5 minute candle and one being volume, I was viscerally sick. That setup look so good and it many times broke me as it looked so good and I loaded up to 2, sometimes 3 contracts per trade.
Now I know the enemy. How can I beat that spot where I get wiped? Must be plenty of money for the other side. Six months later I had my solution. The null hypothesis. I cannot get it to work therefore it is unworkable. Takes a bit of confidence to say that because the ES is a monster and non-domesticated.
How do I get in the side that used to kick my ass in? Roughly six months later we are at break even. Through reverse engineering I've creating a priority checklist. or as my dinosaur education states, a flow chart. So my flow chart says if this happens then consider this. Today and here especially an algorithm is a program so I did go to the dictionary.
noun
a process or set of rules to be followed in calculations or other problem-solving operations, especially by a computer.
My algorithm, my pre determined set of rules, that the computer would follow as well as the manual enter er.
I need speed of entry so muscle memory and thousands of order later, a little more win percentage.
Summing up, no backtesting, no trading education purchases, strong pattern recognition skills.
Greed and other poor qualities were against me when I went from demo to live. Just another hundred and out! Identify what core issue the problem and work on it. If theory works then the operator is defective,
About your mean reverting plan. I think of a scatter gram. The histogram also applies here and the strong price level is the highest rated.
Math is a law but averages move. On the scatter gram the points(trades) are dense around the average line and thin as they move away from the existing average. That means plenty of small win but trouble going for larger spreads. The ES is known for whipping the stops out. People sit there to get a one tic better price and your really sitting there until the market figures out what to do with you. They usually decide to take your money and not leave it.
In theory you could beat the market by knowing what has passed but you will never have 100% knowledge. The model you are playing will fail unless you enough margin to cover the run of outliers so far from the mean. How much money necessary to control margin int the ES. Just too big of an entity to see all around it 360 degrees.
Only by thought and zero practical knowledge I think your sample size is way too small therefore the results are not valid. mentioning fudged results makes your question and my answer irrelevant. Trade one contract for the ES and use 1500 in the play account. Double it and your ready to go live. Or at least I was and I still lost. You also need screen
time.
Ty for the question,
I cannot post yet for today as my backup computer has windows 7 and I cannot figure out how to post a screen shot. My son will be home later if it is possible. It was a real good one.
What a week, right? The motion is fast but the trades are mostly accurate. Today was my first double trouble. My neuropathy double clicked the mouse and 10 contracts live when only 5 desired. Went quick and I stared and withed it luck. I did what I used to do to get out of trouble. I set the stop way out there over 50% of the last large move and could have lost 2k at it worst. Came back and stopped it just in to profitability. Had dropped 5 of the ten off earlier to slow it down.
Then good stuff. The one tic loss was from misplacing the stop. I thought it was 1 under and no glasses and no patience and no logic. Afternoons are rough on me. The 2 o'clock medication for my spine are sleep inducing. muscle relaxers, and medical marijuana.
No drastic changes to anything until signaled by bad results.
I put through 2 trades early. First one was usual and the second one tanked right away. The stop loss was set around $2500.00 and went down about 1k. I didn't see t as i fell asleep until 12 noon. had the trade not closed in my favor, 45 minutes later i would have lost 2500. the market tanked 30+ points. Note to self-no sleeping during and open trade.
I fished the day way ahead. went back to sleep and woke around 7. Thought is was Wednesday morning. I had a problem with my family this weekend. I forgot to stay out of my business if they are involved. Forgot my mother had OCD hoarding and my share of as anything that passes through her hands belongs to HER. I got beat out of 20k and the last time it was 33k. Any price to get rid of her would be acceptable. I made over 6k last week and she can go rot with her cartons of cigarettes. At least I do not have to bother with any longer. have barely seen her in 10 years and live 5 miles away. Another funeral I can slip. Enough of what is not important.
The weather siucks and I have to make adjustments. I am susceptible to changing weather patterns with regards to barometric pressure. I need to regulate my non trading life so it will assure my trading life. I have two boys who do not depend on me but need all the help i can give.
Trading the ES is my way out. My edge is trading the ES with my model. My model was created by the ES being so stubborn. had the ES let me prevail from the start, I would not need a model to bet the ES. ES BEWARE!
I swore off the Globex because just to slow. Experimenting with it now because the volume is so much greater than its been. I tried nights before the day session and failed miserably. I need to review all my do not does. I become a better trader week by week. The trader who failed in the nights is no longer around. I will continue based on this mornings action.
VIX around 20
Volume at 9 am est is over 300k
Range is 31
Obviously I'm still agitated by the hit from last week. The money would be nice. It's the total disrespect I get which I no longer will take. In 2012 I instituted a full paradigm change. I do best when I stay far away from the disrespect ors. Do not get involved even to help out. it is a trap that can no longer catch me.
More trades for the day.
The first one got me good. Losing 437.50 to me is horrific. I earned over 6k last week and now around 3k for the two days and still wanrted to ride the trade out. My indicators said get out and i did. The market moved 4.25 points higher so my 2500.00 this day sucks stop loss, would have held and added 875.00 to today's total. Que sera...
continue trading, wide awake i continued and did very well. Completely shot without the right sleep.
TY DD-
EX
The figures are for 18, 5 contract trades upon entry. win percentage is off due to the nature of the split exits. Correct to 94.2%
Perfect for a crazy man to make cent$ out of it.
875 + 2900(new personal high = 3775.00