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I can't believe i haven't done anything STUPID so far... it certainly has been testing.
What this thread really needs is an expert in the US dollar index.
Agreed with Donald - Gold / Crude oil are moving inversely proportional to the dollar index while silver is a bit more subdued post its parabolic upmove.
I read recently (maybe on financial sense) that dollar index has this 20 year old HNS formation.
On the USD, i just had a short conversation with a broker friend who is a VP with a big bank brokerage, i asked what the boys in his back room think on the DXY, and he says they are internally forecasting that it hits $70. He agrees that gold $2,000 is in sight, for what its worth - ( that is the Canadian banking establishment talking).
Don't sell your silver..
Coming back to your astute observation, because it just hit me that you are probably more than correct. The OBL story would have been known in advance to many. I was trying to figure out what turned gold. I think you hit on it. Remember those unexplained shorts of 10 years ago? It fits.
Anybody else buying? I just completed a swing trade, i'm fully long again at $41.10, hoping it bottomed, at least for the next 15 min.. lol (buyer's remorse is already setting in).
I think the easy money has now been made to the downside so it's no longer a screaming short, but feels like a risky long here. Maybe that's the right time to buy, when buying is scariest.
I'm guessing it cycles in this channel for bit longer, maybe a few more days. The range is about $5.00, or so it appears at the moment. Right now i'm out of powder, and hoping for a target tonight of $45/$46.00 to unload. I'm thinking as long as gold bounces along, it should be safe. Its fun action anyway, at least until i get slapped.