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I did not post on Thur 1 mar...it was a tough day trading when profits could have been made
The reason for this post is to gather my thoughts and let others learn from my errors
Daily Trading Plan:
Looking for 15min DP Support to go long
Anticipate Auto Setups to the Long side
What I did:
1) Took a losing Inside Gap Fill trade to the short side
2) Took late trend trades for a loss
3) Late recognition of router problems required me to enact my "internet loss back-up plan"
See Attached Snap Shots
Lessons Learned:
1) Stick with your game plan unless you have a good reason not to
2) If Ninja Trader is not working well it may be your data feed
3) I usually like to track my trades on the TIC charts - and noticed that there wasn't a lot of trading going on
Turned out I had a router problem and was missing data.
4) Honestly I totally missed the 5-wave down sequence...this should have been in my daily game plan! (See follow-on post Part2)
Important Recommendation: If you do not have a back up plan for when your data feed/ internet connection goes bad you better not trade until you do.
I have an emergency phone number to my broker's trading desk posted on my computer monitor for just this scenario
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Elliot Wave Theory
After a 5-wave impulsive move there normally is a correction to the DP taken off the Wave-4 pivot!
It is ironic that on Friday 2 March after missing a profitable trade I attempted to see what I had missed. i posted the lesson learned and then joined the Friday MTP Webinar....
Steve reviewed the 1 Mar markets and talked about a 5-Wave impulsive move down on the TF and how to anticipate a correction to the DP taken off the wave-4 DP ....
When I saw this I realized I totally missed this in my trading day plan for 1 MAR !!!
So here are a couple of after-the-fact screen shots of what I missed (Lessons learned in part 1)
On the road Night Flying and missed these trades ....
Wasn't in the Friday MTP Webinar so I do not know if these were covered...this is just what I observed
I thought I would post to help illustrate some good trades and hopefully build / reinforce my own confidence in my trading system.
Daily Game plan:
TTT Buy Day - so I would initially look for the market to be driven down to a Low / Support level followed by the begining of the TTT "3-Day Rally"
Build your market Situational Awareness (SA) / Market Context
Pre-Market Open Chart Setup:
15 Minute MTPredictor DP's should already be on the Chart
These DP's give you some initial Major Support / Resistance Zones as well as possible targets
Look for Intermediate Wave Counts / Use MTP's EW int function to help build SA
Trades:
Trade #1: Advanced MTP Setup using the 15 min DP support as a low and the DP taken off the Intermadiate Wave-4 pivot as the 1st target zone (see previous posts on this type of trade)
Trade #2: TS3 Standard MTP long Set-up to the Min Wave-C target
See attached post market analysis screen snapshots with comments...
Thoughts / Observations:
The decision to enter a trade can be difficult...
Your daily gameplane and Pre-market Open Chart prep can help build market SA
When the market appears to mirror your forecast then take a calculated risk...this is the best one can do
The market can either accept or reject all your targets and DP's...if it does reject then re-assess
What time-frame should you use...
15 Minute seems to work well for larger degree trends (credit to MTPredictor)
I find that when looking at different time-frames on the TF that each time-frame usually point to the same thing (Trend ) and often have very similar setups
I have had luck with 1min, 2min and 133Tic charts
I use whatever time-frame gives me the "cleanest" / "best looking" wave counts
I think of MTPredictor's waves as a series of "stencils"... which ever stencil (time-frame) models the current market and Elliot wave theory best.... that is what I use.
It is easy to look back and see with 20/20 hind sight winning trades ( they look easy until you try to execute them and trust your trading system)
Trade Management:
Looking back at these trades using the Standard MTP Rules for trade Management would have worked well...
Could eek out more R/R using the DP WPT's and knowing the wave counts..not always the case.
What do you do when you get a auto-set-up in the opposite direction...don't panic and analyze it (see attached screen shot #3)
The purpose of this MTP Forum is two fold:
To help me gather my own thoughts and to learn from my success / mistakes
Hopefully get feed back from more experienced traders out there...is my analysis valid or flawed?
Please feel free to post comments/ throw spears ... I am not an expert ....only attempting to become a better trader
Not trading today but Here are some trades I did see after the fact:
The purpose of this post is to reinforce MTP confidence and to build a cash of tradable patterns
All Trades were on a 24hr TF06-12 133 Tic chart
I have found that the 133T time-frame often works well on the TF (John Carter uses 133T as well)
Again I think of MTPredictor's wave as a "stencil" or template...if the market unfolds in "Good" Elliot waves then I consider that time-frame to be the time-frame to trade in.
Here are some of the trades I saw after the fact (I know easy to see after the fact):
1) Possible Holy Grail
2) DP/End of Wave-5
3) TS-1 / Holy Grail
I have been looking at different time-frames in an attempt to identify the time-frame that best unfolds in "Good" Elliot Wave patterns.
The thought process is as previously noted: that if the market appears to be unfolding with "Good" EW sequences then I can better use the tools in MTPredictor to forecast / trade off
Here is a snapshot of an example of a 2 min versus 3min TF06-12 Time-frame comparison
Notes:
The 3min Typical Wave-3 WPT (Wave-Price-target) nailed the Pivot
The 2min End of Wave-5 trade DP target of the wave-4 pivot predicted a good pull-back WPT level
Thoughts:
Trading is about maximizing the Risk/Reward (IE larger wins and controlled risk losses) per trade and therefore you should not take every trade that comes down the pike but aim towards the one's with the highest R/R
In terms of Elliot Wave that would be trading off the end of Wave-2 to catch the "largest" potential impulsive Wave-3
I would like to be able to Back or Forward test the "End of Wave-5" trades to get an average R/R
The big question is over time are you better off just trading the Wave-3 or can the End of Wave-5 be just as profitable or even more profitable.
A member of the weekly (M-W-F) MTPredictor Trading Webinars ...I believe trades primarily the "Holy-Grail Wave-3"trade
The return has been an average R/R of 4.8 !!