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Time to Give Up


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Time to Give Up

  #541 (permalink)
 
casey44's Avatar
 casey44 
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@David_R, just another's two cents... takes time of course to change any one's emotional state, perhaps an option in the meantime could be to use an automated or semi-automated mode of trading in the meantime like a BlackBird (Shark Indicators') or a Trade Unafraid , outsource the emotional component so to speak.
Good for you having the courage to post. Best to ya.


David_R View Post
Thanks Trend,

I appreciate the feedback.

I'm not sure how to express this because for me it's inexplicable. I have told myself to "focus on the process", "follow my plane" etc. more times than I can count. What I'm trying to convey is that when I sit down at the computer to trade it's very much like the flight or fight response. You know those feelings you get when it occurs? You get adrenaline, become tense, maybe get tunnel vision etc. But this response is automatic when the situation presents itself. When I trade it's the same thing. Its not the flight or fight response, but the thoughts, emotions and feeling are, at least to me, feel automatic. It's not as intense when just looking at the chart, but if I start to consider entering or if I enter these things do become intense and the thoughts are just out of control. These thoughts, feelings and emotions take over. This is what I don't know how to control, or more importantly change for the better.

It sounds like to me the only way to fix these things is to do these things. But at the same time I've been told willpower alone is not enough. So if willpower is not enough then what's the answer? Be born to do it?

DR


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  #542 (permalink)
 
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 phantomtrader 
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The only thing that will give you confidence in your strategy is testing. Kevin Davey is the resident expert in strategy development and back testing. Having a strategy that's back tested thoroughly and correctly will put you in control and not the market. The majority of traders don't understand statistics. Trading is all about the numbers. If you don't understand the numbers that your strategy is spitting out, you can't predict the probability of future outcomes.

Kevin has a YouTube channel. I strongly suggest you watch his videos and read his posts here. I would bet that your entire strategy will change dramatically after you learn how to properly test.

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  #543 (permalink)
lightsun47
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phantomtrader View Post
The only thing that will give you confidence in your strategy is testing. Kevin Davey is the resident expert in strategy development and back testing. Having a strategy that's back tested thoroughly and correctly will put you in control and not the market. The majority of traders don't understand statistics. Trading is all about the numbers. If you don't understand the numbers that your strategy is spitting out, you can't predict the probability of future outcomes.



Kevin has a YouTube channel. I strongly suggest you watch his videos and read his posts here. I would bet that your entire strategy will change dramatically after you learn how to properly test.

The big question is: Until when in the future my strategy is going to work? Because markets are dynamic and they keep on changing their own strategies, thereby making me lose my own edge and strategy in the process!

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  #544 (permalink)
 
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 phantomtrader 
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lightsun47 View Post
The big question is: Until when in the future my strategy is going to work? Because markets are dynamic and they keep on changing their own strategies, thereby making me lose my own edge and strategy in the process!


We are traders, not crystal ball operators. What does your back testing tell you? Did you do forward testing? Is your strategy profitable month over month? Are you consistent with your strategy or do you change it when you have losses?
Did you code your strategy to back test or are you doing it manually. If you don't have the numbers, you don't know anything about how your strategy is going to perform.
The market gives us the high, low, open and close every day. That doesn't change.

Post the rules for your strategy along with your back tested numbers and we can take a look at it.

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  #545 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
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lightsun47 View Post
The big question is: Until when in the future my strategy is going to work? Because markets are dynamic and they keep on changing their own strategies, thereby making me lose my own edge and strategy in the process!

For every strategy I create, I assume it will fail sometime in the future. I plan for it. Then if and when that failure happens, I know exactly what to do.

I've had many strategies last over 5 years. I've had some fail within a year. You never know when this will happen.

The keys:

1. Plan for failure (know when you will turn off strategy)

2. Have many strategies, then failure of one does not kill your account

3. Have replacement strategies ready to step in

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  #546 (permalink)
 Miesto 
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kevinkdog View Post
For every strategy I create, I assume it will fail sometime in the future. I plan for it. Then if and when that failure happens, I know exactly what to do.

I've had many strategies last over 5 years. I've had some fail within a year. You never know when this will happen.

The keys:

1. Plan for failure (know when you will turn off strategy)

2. Have many strategies, then failure of one does not kill your account

3. Have replacement strategies ready to step in

Do you have any strategies that turned positive again after some time after failing and did you turn them back on? I mean failure can be temporary. Thanks!


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  #547 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
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Mies View Post
Do you have any strategies that turned positive again after some time after failing and did you turn them back on? I mean failure can be temporary. Thanks!

I have, but the hurdle to convince me to trade it again is very high, and the psychological costs many times are overwhelming.

Imagine that your significant other cheats on you. How willing will you be to take them back? And how much would you trust them the 2nd time around?

Those psychological issues make it tough for most people (self included) to trade a strategy live again after it has cost you money...

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  #548 (permalink)
 
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 trendisyourfriend 
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kevinkdog View Post
I have, but the hurdle to convince me to trade it again is very high, and the psychological costs many times are overwhelming.

Imagine that your significant other cheats on you. How willing will you be to take them back? And how much would you trust them the 2nd time around?

Those psychological issues make it tough for most people (self included) to trade a strategy live again after it has cost you money...

Then would you mind sharing those that failed you ;-)

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  #549 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Then would you mind sharing those that failed you ;-)

Unfortunately, not much value anymore in many of them...

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  #550 (permalink)
 
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 trendisyourfriend 
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kevinkdog View Post
Unfortunately, not much value anymore in many of them...

I understand that some strategies may not have yielded the expected results for you. It would be insightful to know about the trading approaches that didn't work as intended. Sharing such experiences can be valuable for the trading community, as we can learn from each other's successes and setbacks.

Even failed strategies can provide valuable lessons and inspire us to innovate and refine our own approaches. If you feel comfortable sharing, I'd love to hear more about theses strategies that didn't pan out for you, as it could offer valuable insights and help others in their trading journey.

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