SadPraetor 

I have to pick a battle with you here You do realize you stated fallacy in that statement? Expectancy = (probability of win * average win) + (probability of loss * average loss) Win rate is important, it is one component of the equation. With 0% win rate you can't make money

LOL, to make your case you use a win rate of 0% in your argument?

Search the forum and you'll see the rookies talking win %. Win % by itself is meaningless. Your posts mention win % by itself, and not the profit factor or expectancy. Like I said, to me that says rookie. We were all rookies at one point, I'm simply trying to encourage you to educate yourself a bit more in this area.

If you modify your argument to say win rate of 10%, you can still have a great expectancy. And that's my point.

Your mistakes, as I see them:

(a) scalping, (b) focusing on win % [akin focusing on being right].

Scalping is bad because of the costs involved, among other reasons discussed extensively on the forum. Focusing on win % is bad because win % alone is meaningless.

Repeating myself: focus on expectancy, and include the fixed costs of the trade in the calculations (commission + slippage).

Mike

Big Mike 

LOL, to make your case you use a win rate of 0% in your argument? Search the forum and you'll see the rookies talking win %. Win % by itself is meaningless. Your posts mention win % by itself, and not the profit factor or expectancy. Like I said, to me that says rookie. We were all rookies at one point, I'm simply trying to encourage you to educate yourself a bit more in this area. If you modify your argument to say win rate of 10%, you can still have a great expectancy. And that's my point. Your mistakes, as I see them: (a) scalping, (b) focusing on win % [akin focusing on being right]. Scalping is bad because of the costs involved, among other reasons discussed extensively on the forum. Focusing on win % is bad because win % alone is meaningless. Repeating myself: focus on expectancy, and include the fixed costs of the trade in the calculations (commission + slippage). Mike

couldn't agree with @Big Mike, more

you are doomed, and destined for failure, if you don't heed his sagacious advice

After reading through the thread in it's entirety, (I was surprised to discover this thread is over two and a half years old), I have one suggestion that might help, maybe a little... here is a very good webinar I think it may help clarify the importance of expectancy in developing your skill as a trader...

I went quiet for three weeks. Went over the discussion in the online Journal. I was not feeling like sharing. But Journal is a commitment so I have to start posting again. I reviewed much of the notes and my personal Journal (Access, One note), thinking and weighting possibilities. The decision is that I'm going to stick to my guns. I believe that by addressing my fears in trading (closing out trades too early, hesitation in opening trades) I should get more reward per time spent and much faster than trying to redraw everything.

Past 3 weeks I was doing live trading, but not much success