SMCJB 

This is a podcast/interview with John Arnold "widely regarded as the greatest natural gas trader of all time". It's very long at over 2 hours but one of the very few times I have ever heard John talk about trading so openly. The first hour is entirely about how John got into trading, and his time at Enron and Centaurus, and why he left trading. The later 75 mins is about his philanthropic work which is also very interesting but obviously less relevant to this thread. The Peter Attia MD Podcast. https://peterattiamd.com/johnarnold/ #125 – John Arnold: The most prolific philanthropist you may not have heard of "I always recognized the limited social value of trading. I think there is a need for someone to provide risk warehousing and liquidity to markets, but trying to tell the story about how I was adding value or contributing to society was hard. And that always bothered me." — John Arnold

Another good interview with John Arnold.

I'd challenge his timeology with regards to ICE and Enron Online. ICE was very much formed after Enron Online, and as a response to Enron Online, and not the other way around. Also funny listening to 31 year olds talk about things that happened 20 years ago as if they were they rather than being in elementary school!

The Story of John Arnold - The King of Natural Gas Trading

So I met John Arnold at a party and he was just starting out and headed to vegas out of Denver. he had all of 8 million of his own money to start his hedge fund. I was and still am very good friends with his sometimes joggin partner who traded near him at ENRON and she moved onto another physical gas company to trade for and he started his fund. obviously landing t.boone pickens as your number one client helps you with information and clout but make no mistake Arnold Traded well and big. Apparently drank coffee like it was water.

She had a book that was John's about natural gas trading and she let me borrow it for a month. At the time is was over my head on a whole lot of levels so i pretty much handed it back to her and
said i have no idea what is in here that makes sense to him and she said me either.

I tried over and over to get in front of him again to talk trading or hey can i come work for you but his fund was grwoing so rapidly and kicking so much as so rpaidly and then he went for broke with an enormous trade against Brian at Ama that of coure he had the real info on the salt mines and of course t boone could click buttons and natural gas well i tjust disappears you guys so yesterday you had huge supply and walla right before a heat wave all of sudden the salt caverns are left open for a few days and it guess what that odorles gas just diappears and you end up making billions against another smart trader who just beleived in teh math so much and the stats as if they are ever real that he just kept pushing thinking he could man handle it but no t boone was in it and he would not stop adding money until he won and thats the difference between trading and poker. .you are playing poker with BILLIONAIRES who will do anything not to lose AKA GME .. archegon you name it they will push these markets around even the indexes.. beware.

this is the book along with another one but i dont remember the other one. it was just more swap examples and option payoffs etc.
ScreenHunter 20595

ScreenHunter 20596

Cutloss 

this is the book along with another one but i dont remember the other one. it was just more swap examples and option payoffs etc. ScreenHunter 20595

Fletcher (you wrote that book) was at Enron at the same time as John and sat a few desks down. He also just (like last month) published the second edition of that book. Very good book.

You can trade micro nat gas futures contracts too

BTW Im not an economist or engineer but nat gas seems overpriced here. On the other hand, is the price going higher as the world gets closer to pre covid productivity levels ? Or is it due to inflation related cost hikes across the board? Nat gas hit some high levels in the low 3s and bounced lower. I was thinking it would do the same here but it didnt. The price looks quite sinusoidal and I expect a reversal to into the 2s at some point ... but when.....?

67belvedere 

You can trade micro nat gas futures contracts too

There's a Mini 2500 MMBtu contract (QM), which is quarter the size of the full contract (10,000 MMbtu), but no Micro yet. I wonder whether a Micro NG will be next on the slate with Micro CL launching next month.

Where do you think nat gas is headed? are you a technical trader?

3.395 was Oct 2020 recent high for nat gas futures. I think it may pull back from there. I would be willing to let it go a little higher before getting out. my question is... how much higher. ive lost a good amount expecting it to pull back sooner. I could let my position go even more in the red until the price climbs above 3.396 and risk losing more...

thanks for any comments about this question

-Bel

67belvedere 

Where do you think nat gas is headed? are you a technical trader? 3.395 was Oct 2020 recent high for nat gas futures. I think it may pull back from there. I would be willing to let it go a little higher before getting out. my question is... how much higher. ive lost a good amount expecting it to pull back sooner. I could let my position go even more in the red until the price climbs above 3.396 and risk losing more... thanks for any comments about this question -Bel

You shouldn't compare fall/winter NG futures contracts' prices to summer NG contracts.

NG demand is higher in winter thus it will have higher prices than summer.


https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/ron.h8870/viz/Energies-NGWeeklyData/Yearly