CME:- Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures: Global Benchmark
By Adila Mchich 07 JUL 2023

https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/whitepapers/henry-hub-natural-gas-futures-global-benchmark.html

The purpose of this article is to highlight the trading characteristics of Henry Hub futures and the infrastructure relevance of the underlying delivery point, which have enabled this contract to become the benchmark or de facto price reference for the U.S. and global gas market.

NG Margin changes effective COB August 4th, 2023

Maintenance margin's changing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)

Tier 1 / Sep23 increasing from $4000 to $4500 +$500
Tier 2 / Oct23 increasing from $3800 to $4300 +$500
Tier 3 / Nov23 increasing from $3700 to $4200 +$500
...
Tier 7 / Mar24 increasing from $3300 to $3800 +$500
Tier 8 / Apr24 increasing from $1900 to $2000 +$100

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2023/08/Chadv23-227.html

Hmm... And Another Increase!

NG Margin changes effective COB August 9th, 2023

Maintenance margin's changing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)

Tier 1 / Sep23 increasing from $4500 to $5000 +$500
Tier 2 / Oct23 increasing from $4300 to $4800 +$500
Tier 3 / Nov23 increasing from $4200 to $4700 +$500
...
Tier 7 / Mar24 increasing from $3800 to $4200 +$400
Tier 8 / Apr24 increasing from $2000 to $2200 +$200

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2023/08/Chadv23-234.html

@SMCJB, what are the factors that affect the margins? Is it recent volatility, order book liquidity, volumes...?

Recent and Expected Volatility.

I did a study, probably about 15-16 years ago now, trying to predict margin changes. If I remember correctly the most significant variable (back then) was the X day high-low range. Unfortunately I have no idea what X was. Maybe I'll see if I can find it.

Micro contract coming November 6th

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/micro-henry-hub-natural-gas.html

Micro Contract is now live. (If your trading it remember it's a penultimate contract, not that anybody without assets should be trading it on last day/expiration)

Prompt Natgas Futures have dropped 37.5c or 10.67% in the last two trading sessions. Prices for physical gas at Henry Hub have dropped even further. The price for the balance of November has dropped from 37c below the screen on Friday ($3.10/15) to 73c below the screen at one point today, with a low print of $2.38. Next day cash was $3.01 on Friday (for the weekend) and $2.02 today (for Wednesday). Sell off seems to be have driven by warmer weather forecasts for the next 15 days over the weekend although there are also rumors of one of the Gulf Coast LNG trains being offline.

Remember no EIA storage reports this week. as EIA are completing a planned systems upgrade.

From John Kemp's "Best In Energy" daily...
(Well worth the sign up at https://twitter.us18.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=92fd2e3ec7962cda008f0732a&id=a5736ab8e1)

EUROPE’s gas futures prices are trending lower as consumption falls, LNG imports rise and storage becomes saturated. The calendar strip for gas delivered over the course of 2024 (i.e. the annual average futures price) has averaged just €48 per megawatt-hour so far in November 2023 down from €99 in the same month in 2022. The calendar average is trading near the lowest level since the early days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 though still almost three times higher than the average for 2018-2021:

More on Europe from John Kemp's "Best In Energy" daily...

EUROPE’s gas prices are falling steadily despite cold weather hitting much of the region as traders anticipate inventories will be more than enough in the event of even the coldest imaginable winter. Northwest Europe is roughly a quarter of the way through the winter heating season. Gas storage facilities are still almost 94% full compared with a prior ten-year seasonal average of less than 82%. After adjusting for inflation, calendar-average futures prices for the year-ahead have fallen to €42 per megawatt-hour so far in December down from €53 in August 2023 and €223 in August 2022:

Natural Gas down 11%. All I could find in the news was the weather forecast looks warmer.