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Instrument: AUDUSD
Direction: Either
Technicals: Hourly bars currently testing top of descending wedge.
Fundamentals: AUD CPI figures to be released at 11:30am GMT+10
Entry: TBD
Stop: TBD
Target: TDB
R:R: TBD
Summary: If the CPI figures are a miss, I'll go short with a target near the bottom of the descending wedge channel. If CPI figures hit or exceed, I expect a breakout of the channel and will go long.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Well, I'm in short as the CPI figures were disappointing. Got a horror fill so I'm behind the 8-ball a bit, but still feel confident this news should thrust the AUDUSD back towards the bottom side of its channel.
Instrument: AUDUSD
Direction: Short
Technicals: Hourly bars currently testing top of descending wedge.
Fundamentals: AUD CPI figures to be released at 11:30am GMT+10
Entry: 1.02352
Stop: 1.02676
Target: 1.02073
R:R: < 1:1 (not a great R:R due to bad fill)
Summary: CPI figures were a miss, so shorted AUD.
Both the technicals and fundamentals seemed to align to make this look like a winning trade. However, the market is about probabilities, not certainties and you can never be correct all the time. I still feel like it was a 'good' trade even though it wasn't a winning trade.
Instrument: USDJPY
Direction: Short
Technicals: Price bound below big scary 100 figure
Fundamentals: USD Durable goods data due
Entry: 99.382
Stop: 99.491
Target: 99.15
R:R: > 1:2 (not a great R:R due to bad fill)
Summary: Short USDJPY if Durable goods data is a miss
This is a retrospective journal entry. I made this trade after the Durable goods figures were a miss. Price went briefly in my direction but ended up bouncing back, hitting my stop and continuing further. From a rational perspective, I'm not sure why the market reacted in this way, but I'm glad I had a tight stop in place.
Instrument: USDJPY
Direction: Long
Technicals: Price has been bound below big scary 100 figure
Fundamentals: BOJ meeting today should be a catalyst to at least retest 100 mark and possibly break through. Especially if USD GDP figures are on target later today.
Entry: 99.188
Stop: 98.978
Target: 100.845
R:R: > 1:2
Summary: I'm banking on the BOJ news to be bearish for JPY. I think I got a pretty good entry price. I have my initial target set a fair way off, I may bring that back in depending on how quickly price moves and where it is at before the USD GDP figures are released.
I'm really not understanding how the USDJPY is moving right now. I need to take 5 and think before getting in again with this pair, even though I still feel like it should test 100 again today.
Instrument: USDJPY
Direction: Long
Technicals: Price has been bound below big scary 100 figure
Fundamentals: BOJ meeting today should be a catalyst to at least retest 100 mark and possibly break through. Especially if USD GDP figures are on target later today.
Entry: 99.815
Stop: 98.495
Target: 100.845
R:R: > 1:10
Summary: I'm going again with the USDJPY long. This could make me look really silly after already losing over 30 pips going long on it today, but I feel like this trade is still good with huge upside, I just didn't foresee the price dropping back below 99 before shooting for 100, which caught me out earlier. I'll see how this one plays out then review whether I should have had a wider stop on the first trade or if it's better to have tighter stops that get hit more often before catching a runner.
Well, the market has humbled me and made me look and feel like a bit of a muppet. I was so sure the BoJ news would be bearish for the JPY and perhaps in the longer term it will prove to be the case, but the market reacted in a bullish way when the BoJ didn't double down on their previous QE initiative.
There is a lesson here and I'm pretty sure I know what it is, but I'll wait until the end of the trading week to formulate my thoughts and let myself cool off a little bit.
Entry: 98.860
Stop: 98.785 (moved my stop up. That looks like a bad decision. Think I'm going to instigate some harder rules on doing so for next week). P&L: -7.5 pips
