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@Stephan
Your marriage is your life capital. Spend it well by investing in its future.
Thank you for the honest sharing. I understand and support your decision for family.
Ken
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Thank you for the comment. I totally agree. That's why I haven't been trading. I'm still doing my homework each day but I want to focus more on family first. I need to spend more time with my wife and kid. Also, I'd be lying to myself to think that spousal support is my only issue. I have many other things I need to work on before I'm ready to trade again. Thanks.
Overnight volume so far is about 5-10% below 50d avg. We are most likely opening out of range. Expecting 37 half to be tested. No econ news on the calendar. Expecting 2 way auction. Buyers might still be in control if we can get above 47.75.
Hypothesis #1 - Responsive sellers push ES down to test 39 half gap, 37 half VPOC, 34 half ONLO and then 25.75 YLO.
Hypothesis #2 - With no econ news today, ES may trade in a range between 32 to 47.
Hypothesis #3 - Initiative buyers push ES above ONHI, test 51, & 55 half.
Value shifted higher yesterday even though we closed within Monday's range. Interesting action overnight. FT mentioned that the key driver overnight was market disappointment with BoJ decision. We will most likely open with a gap down this morning within Friday's range. Holding 26 is key for buyers. No econ news on the calendar today. Relative volume is over 30% higher than 50d avg. With yesterday's range being so narrow, perhaps we will get a decent amount of volatility either to the upside or continue to the downside.
Hypothesis #1 - Expecting responsive buyers come in and push ES back above the thin profile to 37 half, 38 quarter and 42.
Hypothesis #2 - No econ news today ES may auction between 23 to 37 half. Seems less likely with this kind of directional push to the downside overnight.
Hypothesis #3 - Initiative sellers continue to push ES down, break ONLO @ 25, tag 23 gap, 12 half CHVN and shut off selling @ 08 NVPOC.
It's Contract Rollover today so relative volume is not correct. Not sure what's an easy way to determine the correct relative volume. Need to make a note to look into that.
Overnight ES gapped down to 1591.75 and currently trading near 1600 which is near prior balance low. 96 half is where the up move started and we got a re-test on 06/06/13. We are more than 100 points off the high so it's a very big bracket. ES is most likely going to open out of range. It's not usual to get 2 trend days in a row so expecting market to rest. Will need to watch the opening type to determine direction and velocity.
Hypothesis #1 - Responsive buyers step in and hold the balance area low, push ESH back above 1600 ONVPOC, then 1608, 09 half, 11.75 and perhaps 26 again depending on where we open.
Hypothesis #2 - Initiative sellers continue to push lower, retest 96 half, 91.75 ONLO, then 87 CHVN and 82 CHVN.
Hypothesis #3 - We are not likely to have another trend day so ES may trade between 96 half to 1612.; just because I'm not expecting a trend day, it doesn't mean it won't happen. Also, we will probably get a strong push in either direction. I stopped watching the VIX because I want to reduce the amount of information I have to process on my screen but most likely we will get a decent amount of volatility.
I think this is going to be my last homework post for a while. Don't want to clutter the nexusfi.com (formerly BMT) forum without adding any value since there are many other active traders posting their homework already. I will resume updating my journal when I'm ready to trade again.
It's been almost 9 months since my last nexusfi.com (formerly BMT) journal entry. My son is 17 months old now and I finally have some free time to focus on trading. Since I started trading live again in late Jan 2014, I've been thinking about how I should use my online journal. I don't really have enough time to update it in the morning each day and I already have a routine to do my homework using Microsoft OneNote. I decided that I should update it on a monthly basis to show my results, lessons learned and work on my goals online for accountability. Accountability is the reason I started this journal in the first place.
I went back to trading 1 lot. I figured I should start small and slowly increase size. I took a total of 72 trades. I captured my S5 Trade Analyzer results and put the data in a spreadsheet that I got from our chat room. I think one of the traders with Stage 5 created this spreadsheet. We're still waiting for the online version of S5 Trade Analyzer with historical information but until then, I don't think I can live without this spreadsheet. It is a really awesome tool.
According to the spreadsheet, my expectacy for Feb 2014 is 1.86. The highest was 4.41 after 17 trades and it quickly dropped down to 1.86 @ trade #72. My win % is 53 and Loss % is 47.
I think I did ok but I made so many mistakes I'm surprised I have a positive expectancy so far. I need to stop micromanaging my trades. Most of the time when I scratch a trade, more than likely it will hit my target. Another problem is that after a losing trade, sometimes I will exit too early. I think the last 2 trades I took I got 3 or 4 ticks and immediately got out because I couldn't hold on. I am still trying to avoid losses. I don't think I have accepted the fact that the outcome of my next trade is 50/50. Those are the things I need to work on in March.
At the beginning of 2014, FT71 told us we need to set our goals. One of my goals is to make 4 ticks per trade on avg within 3 months. I'm not 100% sure I can make that happen but the only thing I can do is to keep trying. Another goal is to stick to my setups and not invent trades in the middle of the day. I haven't been doing a good job with that so far. I also told myself to remember to save my trade analyzer results each day. It's more like a habit but so many times in the past, I would forget to save my results and after RTH session is over, I can't log back in and grab the result for that day. It happened a few times before and it can get pretty frustrating for me so I told myself I need to make sure I save my stats.