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Indicator that will tell us when the MACD is going to "turn"
I have been toying with the idea of creating an indicator that will "tell us" when it is going to "turn."
Let's use the MACD as an example: is it possible to know "in advance" when the MACD is going to turn up or down?
In the screenshot below there is a black line running through price. I will call this line the "turn line." Note that at #1 price moves from below the turn line to cross and close above the turn line. At #2 you can see that the MACD (with trigger line and histogram turned off) turned up when this occurred.
At #3, price is about to cross below the turn line which would tell us the MACD is getting ready to turn down.
Here is a formula that I have been working with to plot the "turn line."
I haven't been able to get it to work in NinjaTrader:
Where :x = bar number where the current bar is bar 1 and yesterday is bar 2 etc.
TurnLine(x) = MACD Price Turns on Bar x
C(x) = Closing Price on bar x
M1 = Simple MACD short moving average
M2 = Simple MACD long moving average
Any one have any ideas how to adapt this into an indicator in NinjaTrader?
The most logical predictive approach that I have seen is that described by John Ehlers in his recent book, as reprised in his futures.io (formerly BMT) webinars.
"If we don't loosen up some money, this sucker is going down." -GW Bush, 2008
“Lack of proof that something is true does not prove that it is not true - when you want to believe.” -Humpty Dumpty, 2014
“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” Prof. Albert Bartlett
Hey Guys!
Im new to the forum, so I don't know if I'm allowed to suggest this, but the "macdiver" indicator over at the Intentional trader, is pretty sweet. Been using it for about 6 months and am very impressed. It is based off of divergence of the MACD. The awesome part about it is that the indicator appears at the OPEN of the bar, which does take a little getting used to since it can feel like you are standing in front of a MAC truck (pardon the pun). But using Support-resistance barriers in conjunction with it has proved profitable for me.
Hope that helps.
Where :x = bar number where the current bar is bar 1 and yesterday is bar 2 etc.
TurnLine(x) = MACD Price Turns on Bar x
C(x) = Closing Price on bar x
M1 = Simple MACD short moving average
M2 = Simple MACD long moving average
I'm trying to say that x = the bar number of the current bar. For some programs it starts as 0 and for other programs it starts as 1.
Let's say it is 0.
Then Result 1 = (M2 / (M2 - M1)) = (Simple MACD long moving average divided by (Simple MACD long moving average minus Simple MACD short moving average))
Result 2 = C(X + M1) = Today's Close * (0 + Simple MACD short moving average)
Result 3 = (M1 / (M2 - M1)) = (Simple MACD short moving average / (Simple MACD long moving average - Simple MACD short moving average))
Result 4 = C(X + M2) = Today's Close * (0 + Simple MACD long moving average)
So, for day 0 =TurnLine(0) = Result 1 * Result 2 - Result 3 * Result 4
Move to the next bar and X=1, then
TurnLine(1) = Result 1 * Result 2 - Result 3 * Result 4
I want to plot TurnLine(x) over price in the price pane.
Here's one I ran across years ago on the Ninja support forum. Modified it to draw vertical line on price panel / added background coloring (back in my "let's make indicators better" days) about 5 or 6 years ago. Good luck on your journey. I'd be happy to see the end result.
After all, it's what you learn AFTER you know it all, that counts!
i did a quick scan
couldn't find any CCI predictive indicator
sometimes i put a stop buy (long) or stop sell (short)
to get into a trade
especially on GC (gold) as this is fast moving
but it has happened that my point chosen is not a CCI cross-over
so an indicator that tells me what price the CCI would cross over, would be helpful
i do understand that the price might change in the next couple bars, depend on the action