Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Decent little flush from highs this morning in crude. High of 76.87 @10:03am sold off to 75.63@10:40. One of the bigger ranges I've seen in a 37 minute time window.
Crude oil rally for the September contract: % change to todays last price of 23.6% since May 5 low of 64.21
I remember the May 5th low, the market opened at 6pm and within the first hour crude sold off almost 400 ticks. I don't know what happened in the market that evening, maybe some big players were trying to scare longs into selling. I guess the economy must be doing better since May with the rally in crude. I think the Fed has a lot to do with things as well. Oil made a good base of about 67.50 since May which coincides with the time the Fed stopped raising interest rates so aggressively. This is also the time when the dollar starting to weaken as well.
Crude down almost 3% today. A pullback like this to be expected after the rally in crude. Today's high of 82.43 with a double top forming around 10pm EDT last night.
Goldman Sachs says that oil demand hit a record in July, 102.8 million barrels daily.
Should be interesting to see if Saudis will continue with voluntary production cuts in the next couple of months or will they let oil prices push higher.
Analysts are saying $100 Brent is very possible if the US and China continue with the same economic pace as they have had in the first half of the year.
I read the US gov was buying for the SPR when oil was at 70 but your graphic shows a decrease in the SPR. I wonder if the first quarter of this year the gov was selling a lot?
You are right that they have started buying crude back. They bought 3M barrels in June for delivery back into the SPR in September. The most recenter tender though was cancelled this week.
Wednesday's sell off in crude ended Thursday morning with a low of 78.69 at 3:03am ET. Since then the market has been straight up to highs at the moment(about 82.30). I think crude is in a good spot to go short with a stop about 83.50.
Fundamentally, over the next couple of months, things look pretty bullish on the supply side with the Saudis and Russia are extending production cuts into September.
Well after briefly touching the 79s this morning crude rallied again back into the 82s. I think it's going to be a short time before crude trades through 79 to the 75s again. These are elevated prices in the low 80s. And by elevated prices I mean the average price of crude in the September contract for the past 2 months is in the mid 70s.
Furthermore, the trading range for the last year has been mid 60s to the low 80s so prices are scratching the upper regions of the range.
Also, there is a huge wick on the daily candle for August 8th. That wick points down. Now there are a couple ways to interpret large wicks. I am in the belief that when at the top of the range a large wick pointing down is bearish.
To conclude, I am bearish on crude for the reasons above.
Making a decision to leave indices for oil and nat gas futures for my Day trading, curious from any energy traders about a macro or micro watch list of markets and events I should keep a eye on throughout the day ? Thanks in advance
