Extremely volatile day in the markets today.

I do wonder about grains crashing on what seems to be a too high USDA yield forecast. Tempting to sell puts here.

ron99 

Extremely volatile day in the markets today. I do wonder about grains crashing on what seems to be a too high USDA yield forecast. Tempting to sell puts here.

Yes, I agree. Prices could move up in the next couple of days. The soybean crop is far away from being made, and it is still a weather market. The figure for harvested acres of spring wheat will be adjusted in the next crop report.

But I do not think lows are in - it might be a short trade. Thus, I do not intend to enter short put options in the near future. If I do something I might buy outright futures or spreads for a quick move.

Best regards, Myrrdin

myrrdin 

Yes, I agree. Prices could move up in the next couple of days. The soybean crop is far away from being made, and it is still a weather market. The figure for harvested acres of spring wheat will be adjusted in the next crop report. But I do not think lows are in - it might be a short trade. Thus, I do not intend to enter short put options in the near future. If I do something I might buy outright futures or spreads for a quick move. Best regards, Myrrdin

Bought a very small lot of MWU just before the close. Will hold it until a close below 690.

HRS stocks are the lowest in 10 years. Harvested acres were not adjusted lower in this report, but will have to be reduced in September.


Best regards, Myrrdin

Article about USDA projections and changes to August number

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-corn-crop-idUSKBN1AQ2EI

myrrdin 

Yes, I agree. Prices could move up in the next couple of days. The soybean crop is far away from being made, and it is still a weather market. The figure for harvested acres of spring wheat will be adjusted in the next crop report. But I do not think lows are in - it might be a short trade. Thus, I do not intend to enter short put options in the near future. If I do something I might buy outright futures or spreads for a quick move. Best regards, Myrrdin

What do you think about starting to sell ZC calls now?
It seems to follow the saisonality nicely.

manuel999 

What do you think about starting to sell ZC calls now? It seems to follow the saisonality nicely.

I do not intend to sell corn calls at current levels.

The seasonal chart is an average over the most recent 5 or 15 or 30 years. If you look at it more closely you find that in most years since 2007 with CZ below 450 in August the annual low for this future is in late August (2016) or early September (2007, 2009, 2010, 2015) with the only exception being 2014.

The seasonal chart for the most recent 10 years is strongly influenced by the years showing annual highs of more than 750 (2008, 2011, 2012), which show a later seasonal low.

Probably this train has left the station without me, and my next trade will be to the long side.

Best regards, Myrrdin

manuel999 

What do you think about starting to sell ZC calls now? It seems to follow the saisonality nicely.

Here is seasonal chart looking at ZCz when it was < 4.00 in August.



Here is seasonal chart when ZCz is > 4.00 in August. The yellow Average Price line is very different than the above chart.



https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

ron99 

Here is seasonal chart looking at ZCz when it was < 4.00 in August. Here is seasonal chart when ZCz is > 4.00 in August. The yellow Average Price line is very different than the above chart. https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

Ah, that is a great chart. Better than taking all averages regardless of price (or at least a different viewpoint)

Also looking at the weekly chart, we are near the multi-year low anyway.
So my proposal of selling calls looks not very smart now.

On 7/20/17 I sold a NGx7p240c400 strangle for 0.038. I exited today at 0.019. 32 days held. 6.5% ROI.

Debating selling puts. I doubt I will sell calls.

I sold NGZ7 (Dec 17) P 2500 for 0.014 now.

Chart, CoT, seasonality and the discussion we had some days ago suggest to me that a rise in prices may be more probable, or at least a decline should be limited.

If it rises a bit I will consider making a strangle of it.