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Start off by saying I like this spread, I like the logic behind it and it back-tests well.
I will not be trading it this year because of ASF disease and China. The hog futures market is pretty thin, and with China's pork supply being disrupted I am afraid they could come in and make some large purchases that would send the market higher, which would generally be bad if in a bear spread position.
Not saying its a bad idea still, but the risk/reward doesn't align well in my eyes
I agree. A lot of buying from China is already priced in the summer contracts, but not to the same extent in the April contract. In case of strong buying after signing the contract US / China a couple of days ago and before the Chinese New Year would influence this spread significantly.
Hello everyone. Just wanted to post a quick introduction. I've been lurking on futures.io for a couple years and this year I finally decided to open a futures account so I hope to be much more active around here. I have a few years experience trading equities and options on equities, but I'm much more interested in the assets that are traded in the futures markets (commodities, energy, interest rates, and currencies). I'm working my way through Ron and Myrrdin's options selling threads as that is ultimately what I intend to do, but I'm using seasonal spreads as a way to initially learn these markets.
Any suggestions for additional learning material and fundamental research material would be greatly appreciated. I'm mostly interested in Grains, Beans, Meats, Energy, Currencies, Gold, and US Fixed Income) Right now I use the following on a regular basis:
MRCI
HighTower Reports
USDA Gain Reports
John Kemp Energy News
Big thanks to Myrrdin and Ron for starting so many great threads and to everyone else who has contributed over the years!
Good to see you here ! Please feel free to ask all of your questions - there are some experienced traders around to answer them.
After reading through some of our threads you have already learnt a lot. And, as a customer of Decarley, you probably know about Carleys books. They are worth readings for beginners, as they give a good overview.
You should get some knowledge about COT data, and how to use them in trading. I learnt a lot from the book of Floyd Upperman, who also provides a website. But there are certainly other good books around.
Is anyone else considering this spread trade: Buy May20 Soybeans & Sell May20 Wheat (CBOT)?
The entry price is attractive (low) but this is somewhat risky considering the ongoing China-USA trade debacle. I am monitoring the movement for a possible entry early Feb.
Will appreciate the views of the seasoned traders.
