myrrdin 

This spread is suggested by MRCI. It worked in 13 of the most recent 15 years. The spread followed the seasonal chart nicely since early September. Relation profit / loss potential is not exciting. I will not enter this bear spread, as I am currently long the LCJ contract, having sold the LCJ P110. There will be a time when it is a good idea to short the LCJ, but in my opinion it is too early now. Fundamental reasons: Extreme cold, larger reduction of cattle from Q4 to Q1 compared to average. It is interesting to note that the reaction to the bearish CoF report just before Christmas was bullish. Best regards, Myrrdin

Thanks for the quick response. Makes sense. This is a dumb question but why would extreme cold affect cattle? Does this indicate that winter might last longer so they will have a harder time gaining weight?

Again, thank you for the great write ups. I'm sure many people appreciate them.

Brett

Dabears2322 

Thanks for the quick response. Makes sense. This is a dumb question but why would extreme cold affect cattle? Does this indicate that winter might last longer so they will have a harder time gaining weight? Again, thank you for the great write ups. I'm sure many people appreciate them. Brett

Cattle gain less weight when it is very cold. And, in extreme weather, some cattle might die.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Does anyone know where I can get seasonality information besides MRCI? The information was good but I didn't use it enough to justify continuing to pay the fee.

Jason

Futuresnoob 

Does anyone know where I can get seasonality information besides MRCI? The information was good but I didn't use it enough to justify continuing to pay the fee. Jason

As mentioned several times in this thread, Seasonalgo is an alternative.

Best regards, Myrrdin

myrrdin 

As mentioned several times in this thread, Seasonalgo is an alternative. Best regards, Myrrdin

Myrrdin,

We should create stickey posts with your Top 10 things to know.... kind of a greatest hits of seasonality trading. Thank you for the hard work you share.

I do notice they are about the same price. If I am forced to pay for the service. Is there an advantage to season algo?

Futuresnoob 

I do notice they are about the same price. If I am forced to pay for the service. Is there an advantage to season algo?

I never studied season algo in detail, and, thus, cannot answer your question. As far as I remember there is a very limited version, which is free of charge.

I am working with MRCI for many years, and it definitely is worth the money.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Futuresnoob 

I do notice they are about the same price. If I am forced to pay for the service. Is there an advantage to season algo?

You can do a free demo at Seasonalgo with only one commodity to try it out. I like it better than MRCI because it has more flexibility. It can do more things than MRCI. I used to subscribe to MRCI then switched to Seasonalgo.

If you want something free but doesn't give suggestions, I have settlement prices for the major commodities charted for the last 9 months of a contract since 2006. It's in Tableau.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

Is anyone thinking of or already in on the following spreads?:

RBOB Apr-Dec
LH Aug- Apr

Kruger 

Is anyone thinking of or already in on the following spreads?: RBOB Apr-Dec LH Aug- Apr

I do not intend to invest in one of these trades.

Regarding the energies, I like the RB - HO spread at this time of the year. I am holding the RBN - HON, which is a recommendation of MRCI from 26th of January onwards.

The LHQ - LHJ depends a lot on the April contract. I prefer to hold a strangle in the LHJ.

Best regards, Myrrdin