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Day 6: Not the first sweep I've been involved in and it most likely won't be the last although they are pretty rare especially that severe. My daily limit today is $1700 not $3k as I have to watch the draw down amount. I held the trade for a bit to see if it was a fat finger trade or if they would hold the upper levels after the sweep. Can't cry over spilled milk just get back on that horse and grind away.
ES setting up to test 2207. not a day trading time frame more so for swing traders. sitting below an inflection point currently. road blocks @ 2250 and 2234. all bets off with daily closings above 2273.
With 14 days left, I would need to average 0.4392% per day to be at $159k. A profit of 1/2% per day gets us there in 12.3 days and a 1% per day profit gets us there in 6.17 days. I'm now averaging 6 trades per day a with a winning % of 83.72%. Goal for tomorrow would be to hit 1/2% of the account in profit and a good day would be 1%. So day 8 goal is a profit of at least $747.70. I hate setting a $$ amount to trading as you just have to trade what the market gives you but this is a contest and don't have time to wait around. With an expectation of making 6 trades, I would really need my trades to have an expectancy of about $125 each. I've had 2 max consecutive losers in a row. Plan is to risk 0.2% or $300 per trade which would allow me 7 consecutive losers in a row before going busto. Once I build up profit I can move away from this risk model. So risking $300 with a 83.72% win rate and looking for an expectancy of $125 looks like this. I would need my winners to be around $207.65 and the math works. ($207.65 x .8372) - ($300 x (1-.8372)). I was risking $1 to win $0.44 earlier so I would now need to up this to risking $1 to win $0.6922. Another possible tweak is to get back to grinding out 9 trades per day. At that rate, I would need an expectancy of $83.08 going forward. In the same $300 risk scenario, my average winners would need to come in at around $157.57 or risking $1 to win $0.5252. That second scenario is more inline but again my average trades per day dropped lately so I'd have to step it up. Bottom line it's going to be a one day at a time deal until we get out of the red zone.
short YM 2 contracts @ 19875 stop @ 19915. risk $400 vs. $300 I wanted but need to cut back on another trade risk. looks like YM in play today. looking for a move to 19830 and possibly to 19751.
Out for a total profit of $80. I think it was around $300 earlier. Not really the best conditions with holiday low volume trading. Still like the idea. Hey you never go broke taking a profit.
