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Thats what I was thinking- sample size isn't that big. I think for now I will keep it 1 tick. I have 104 trades under the strategy on sim right now. It's a pretty good sample, but will hopefully have around 30 more by the end of next week, which can give a little bit of a better picture into the stop situation.
I am about to post up my spreadsheet with a pretty extensive review below and would love to hear what you think! Thanks for sticking with this thread while I have not been active on it.
I have hit a total of 104 trades so far with this strategy, and thought it would be a good time to do a review of the results so far and see what you guys think. Am interested to see if you guys think this can be a profitable strategy along with some tips on further optimizing.
Most of the trades were manually inputed, but some were from backtesting done on hours that I couldn't trade. I backtested conservatively and did not give myself the benefit of the doubt. The backtesting caused my win percentage to actually drop a few points.
Win Percentage: 62.5%
I good goal for this strategy would be to be in the 60-65% range. As I said, before I started doing backtesting I was at about a 67% win, but since then have dropped a little.
Avg Win/Avg Loss: 1.38
I think that this is a good number and gives me some wiggle room. Average win is 1.77 vs Average loss of 1.26. I am risking about 1.36 points per trade
Commissions as % of Profit: 22%
It ranged from 18-22%. This seems pretty high, but not much I can do about TD Ameritrade being $6.88 round trip.
Longest Win Streak: 7
This was achieved while manually trading.
Longest Losing Streak: 4
Also done manually.
Theory on being able to scalp a few ticks with a second contract: disproved!
Ran past profit target > 3 ticks: 42.6%
Is this high?
Thanks for the reply, GruttePier. Your thread was what brought me to the forum.
From what I can put together, it looks like for sep 2016 that you were hitting your profit targets 50% of the time, and you were averaging between about 3-4 points per winning trade. Does this seem correct? Or would the win percentage be the correct entries percentage of 63%?
I'm happy to know that my journey is a motivation/inspiration for others also! No pressure on me to further improvement of my trading, he he.
Anyway, I still have to discuss commission fees with big mike
Enclosed are the corresponding results (posted in my journal). You are right on the %profitable and expectancy.
I'm on holiday this week and busy throwing kids so I have no time for comparing my stats with yours Looking forward to your thoughts!
Thanks for the reply while you're on vacation. Hope you have a good time! Don't feel the need to respond to this post asap. Enjoy your time.
From what I can gather, we have similar stats for your most recent 3 months on there. Over a 1:1 RR and close to 55-60% win. I'm getting more trades off in a day but am looking for smaller profit targets with lower risk as well. After going through the old stuff in your journal you were looking for bigger swings and were risking more.
Note to self: Volume for the first 15 minutes after the US open is a good indicator on volume for the rest of the day. The choppy, low volume range bound days are tough for this strategy, as seen on this past Monday and Tuesday.
Here is an update on the stats: Will post a final review tomorrow, and then the plan is to trade live everyday next week.
Just did a quick 5 day backtest on CL and it looks like it could fit the strategy nicely from about 8:30-1:30. Small sample but the higher volatility and trendiness looks good.
Over the summer, does CL tend to slow down like the indices?