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North Carolina
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradestation
Trading: es
Posts: 644 since Nov 2011
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One of my best posts.... explains how to value BTC using basic mathematics and your own intuition
One way to evaluate whether to buy BTC or at what price is you take what you think the low value should be and the high value and you take the mid point. If you can buy in lower then that price then you might want to buy in. On that valuation, I see a few things that make sense. The assumption is the current value of BTC is just some random variable between the low and high and that all prices are equally likely.
Based on current data, I think BTC is most likely worth between
Highest Probability
$2000 and $8,000
FV = $5,000. If you can buy in below $5,000 then it suggest you should buy.
Longer term
$1500 and $10,000
FV = $5750
Widest reasonable
$200 and $30,000
FV = $16000
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Update slightly revised way.. you calculate what you think it would be at worst case scenario what you think it would be worth at best case scenario for the low and high of your range.
If BTC goes to $200 then I think it would be worth $600 in best case.
If BTC goes to $200 then I think it would be worth $100 in worst case.
If BTC goes to $8000 then I think it would be worth $16000 in best case
If BTC goes to $8000 then I think it would be worth $3000 in worst case
Now you can do it again and average those estimates.
I did it twice and my estimate is between 4925 and 5380 which FWIW is similar to my other estimates.
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