Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,051 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,393
Thanks Received: 10,208
I meant to mention this in my previous post, but got overly focused on my 2007 mortgage crisis rant.
Raoul Pal (of Goldman Sachs, GLG Partners, Global Macro Investor & Real Vision fame) has a very interesting perspective on Blockchain. He likes most people think it's going to be a game changing technology but unlike most people thinks that blockchain will go the same way as cloud computing did. That it will get so commiditized that Blockchain applications will become extremely cheap.
The issue with any cryptocurrency is that its system will be always subject to hacking. This is a problem unique to cryptocurrency, i.e. you can't hack (that I have seen) a regular exchange (such as CME, NYSE, etc.) to steal money, but you can hack and steal (transfer) money from a cryptocurrency exchange and there have been examples in the past.
One law of Information Security has always been that nothing is ever 100% secure, which puts the value of any cryptocurrency at risk of wild fluctuations should any further hacking take place.
I suppose the fluctuations could be equivalent to any fundamental news that today affect other markets but perhaps it's too soon to draw this kind of parallels.
In my opinion, one group that needs to hedge are the miners. They would want to protect their downside while they mine and take the short side.
Matt Z
Optimus Futures
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
1 800 771 6748 local 561 367 8686 email [email protected]
According to reports in the media, the HFT wanted these products. They can trade so fast that they front run either side. Below is a rational breakdown of the players
HFT: Want something to arb and/or front run
Brokers: Very upset that BTC/XBT exchanges are doing tons of volume. They make their living after all from trading commissions.
Whales: Hold BTC in cold storage, can't easily hedge on a downturn because can't move their BTC. CTA's/Other futures traders: Haven't been able to make a profit in 10 years. Low volatility environment makes consistent profits extremely difficult. Perhaps hoping a new market will change the luck? Sorry, CTA's the BTC market is already algo dominated.
I suspect most of the shorting will be from primary holders, day traders, and HFT. Again, let's think if you have 10 million or something in cold storage. You do not want to put that at the risk of any exchange. But, if you have some sort of trading model (such as go flat or short bias when market is under 200 MA-- just an example) then you can't trade it. Small retail traders, of course, don't care as much to trade on unproven exchanges but with bigger money then they will.
One problem is that these products are not BTC cleared. Because they are cash settled, I do not see them as great short products. It will require a lot of cash. You will have to move some BTC from cold storage to the exchange to convert to cash to meet margin if it moves against you.
Also, again I see these products as a form of risk protection for the ultra wealthy. They represent a new source of diversification and alpha. I mean people talk about the risk of the bubble but also let's talk about the risk losing 1000% of your buying power in BTC. If you priced everything in BTC, you're down something like 1000%. So, I think the gold analogy is very reasonable and it is possible that they could take a lot of the gold market share. BTC is more functional then gold. I think as a medium of exchange, rationally, BTC has more value then gold because you can exchange it more easily. As a store of value, gold obviously has more value because of longevity.
Your technical background in this field would lead you to better conclusions than I would. Although I am well read in the applications of Blockchains, I am still trying to wrap my head around the mathematical side and the mining side.
Matt Z
Optimus Futures
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
1 800 771 6748 local 561 367 8686 email [email protected]