perhaps it is both @SMCJB

The worst of the counterparty risk will have to do with bucket shops, small independent sometimes legit broker dealers that offer access to anyone that opens an account in order to capture deposits and fees. From a trading perspective, clients there will be the dumbest of dumb money. They are attracted to the bucket shop by a salesman, or by the lowest deposit or experience requirements needed to get access to a product. Those folks will trade willy-nilly, without consideration or even knowledge of risk, a complicated volatile market soon to be absolutely dominated by smart money pros.

The time between trade entry and when their $400 or $2000 deposit is gone could be measured in seconds.

The firm will call and require more deposit JUST TO GET THE ACCOUNT UP TO ZERO. The trader might send in the money THAT DAY to cover firm counter-party obligations, or they might not. Firms have a net capital requirement that is not supposed to be violated. Read your futures trading agreement and the risk should be clear.

bobwest 

That's right, and I should have said it that way more clearly. My point was that when the Bitcoin "disappeared" it was kind of like when a bank gets robbed and the money "disappears" -- it really is someplace, it's just not where the bank wants it to be. That's the incentive for the attack, of course: for the hackers to get their hands on it. This can be a problem for the institution that was holding it, and for the individuals who don't own it anymore. It could also be a big problem for an exchange that was trading it. How big, and how (and whether) CME would be vulnerable, I don't know -- but I expect it could be large. My only point was that, aside from the potential issues of a probably over-heated market, there are computer-related vulnerabilities as well. And sure, the same thing can happen for conventional banks too, but there have been a lot more instances of Bitcoins being absconded with. Frankly, I don't understand enough about the technical details of these currencies to know how high the risk is, but it's another thing I have noticed with them that is not seen in the same degree with regular ones. Bob.

Just a few extra bullets :

• In the last couple weeks i read a storry of a chap that throw his HD away, because his GF forced him to clean his desk.. now he would turn upside down the dirt belt to find it back
  
• Secondly, i think a bug in Ether, made evaporate a significant amount of crypto currency

So it's not always stolen, and displaced from one wallet to another.
I know retail people are very bad at DRP and BCP, actually nobody does it.

While you can loose your bankcard or your credentials, you still have your money
if you loose your wallet, or the key, you could potentially loose your bitcoins
and they are "destroyed" if the data is not reconstructed

rleplae 

While you can loose your bankcard or your credentials, you still have your money if you loose your wallet, or the key, you could potentially loose your bitcoins and they are "destroyed" if the data is not reconstructed

I do wonder how many Bitcoins are actually out of circulation/lost due to lost keys, people dieing. Could be higher than you think.

Changing the subject slightly, at 12/18 12:08pm Central I see BTC on CME at 18755/18810 so lets say 18785.
Jan/Feb is 90/185, last trade 185, but lets say 135. (Feb premium). That means they are implying a 0.7% 1 month carry.
Jan/Mar last trade was 350. (Mar premium). That implies a 1.85% 2 month carry.
So if you hold physical bitcoins, you can hedge them in deferred months and the market is paying you approximately 0.5-0.9%/month extra. I suspect this implies something about the risk of holding actual Bitcoins. (Ohh and if you've bought bitcoins and they are still on exchange, then you don't hold physical bitcoins - they are just paper as well.)

Not so positive message from somebody who has a lot of experience, interesting quote : " Extremely skeptical about the Bitcoin future". ( See full article)

https://www.businessinsider.com/the-swedish-founder-of-bitcoin.com-one-of-the-largest-sites-in-the-industry-has-sold-all-his-bitcoins-because-its-as-good-as-useless--/?r=nordic

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/19/sec-suspends-trading-in-crypto-company-small-cap-that-has-surged-as-part-of-bitcoin-mania.html

rleplae 

Not so positive message from somebody who has a lot of experience, interesting quote : " Extremely skeptical about the Bitcoin future". ( See full article) https://www.businessinsider.com/the-swedish-founder-of-bitcoin.com-one-of-the-largest-sites-in-the-industry-has-sold-all-his-bitcoins-because-its-as-good-as-useless--/?r=nordic

Seems like this would have been a good arbitrage based on my post of yesterday
Bitcoin - 9.47%
Bitcoin Cash + 70%

guaranteed...

we all know that this does not exist..
pump and pump...

I see a lot of activity lately and discussions as well, that would never be allowed in the way they happen in crypto land to happen in mainstream asset land...

Your are not allowed to 'talk things up'
You are not allowed to 'front run the news'
You are obliged to disclose your transactions..

In crypto world everything is possible as documented in the below article




The question is : "who is fooling who ? "

SMCJB 

I do wonder how many Bitcoins are actually out of circulation/lost due to lost keys, people dieing. Could be higher than you think.

It is estimated nearly 4 million Bitcoins are lost. Initially, when bitcoin started, I suspect that most stored their BTC on their computers and had little understanding of what phenomena it will grow to. Also, when people moved to a wallet and would be off by one digit, it is forever has gone.

Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.