2:30 is the time that I should start writing NY open prep.
1. The dollar index is still heavy that it looks like it is on its way to break the swing low of 94.40.
If that were to be broken decisively, we should see Euro, Gold and Cooper to take another leg higher.



2. ES has run the low made on last Wednesday and rip back above last week's value. So long as last week's value high holding as support, ES remains constructive to the upside. The obvious target to the upside is 2920, where ES has tried multiple times and failed.


3. Crude has swung to the weekly high on the back of some Saudi news. But news driven rallies usually don't last, my base case is still for crude to swing back to take out the weekly low because crude is in fact range bounding in a big trading range.

Could Dr. Cooper be in the process of break out of this 2 month triangle formation?

shrekchenbin 

2:30 is the time that I should start writing NY open prep. 1. The dollar index is still heavy that it looks like it is on its way to break the swing low of 94.40. If that were to be broken decisively, we should see Euro, Gold and Cooper to take another leg higher. 2. ES has run the low made on last Wednesday and rip back above last week's value. So long as last week's value high holding as support, ES remains constructive to the upside. The obvious target to the upside is 2920, where ES has tried multiple times and failed. 3. Crude has swung to the weekly high on the back of some Saudi news. But news driven rallies usually don't last, my base case is still for crude to swing back to take out the weekly low because crude is in fact range bounding in a big trading range.

Dollar is trading back above the 94.40 swing low. It might be just a stop run.
Watch for the rip to the other side.

shrekchenbin 

2:30 is the time that I should start writing NY open prep. 1. The dollar index is still heavy that it looks like it is on its way to break the swing low of 94.40. If that were to be broken decisively, we should see Euro, Gold and Cooper to take another leg higher. 2. ES has run the low made on last Wednesday and rip back above last week's value. So long as last week's value high holding as support, ES remains constructive to the upside. The obvious target to the upside is 2920, where ES has tried multiple times and failed. 3. Crude has swung to the weekly high on the back of some Saudi news. But news driven rallies usually don't last, my base case is still for crude to swing back to take out the weekly low because crude is in fact range bounding in a big trading range.

Looks like market is ready to trade through yesterday's value in a breeze by looking at the opening price action.

Today's trading has pretty much a continuation of the pattern that has developed since this summer that the London session was an extremely quiet and non-eventful session.
Euro's London session range was even smaller than its Asian range. Things finally started moving when NY was coming online. The euro started to leave its London range and trapped back above the session VWAP around 13:30. A strong reaction is found when it tests back to the session VWAP.


I have scheduled my lunch time exercise from 13:30 to 14:30 that i have missed that trade. Thursday I would have to work on the time management so that I would be able to sit in front of the computer on 2:00 pm, which 8:00AM New York time.

For traders like us who are operating in the European time zone, I have noticed a trend that the London session has become less and less volatile since the brexit vote. Maybe it is a result of the fact that more and more trading and investment businesses are diverted out of London even though the politicians are claiming that London is still the world's major financial centre. Now the business for us can pretty much be summarized in one sentence: waiting for the New York open. If this trend continuous, I dare to say that in a few years, the London session would be a pathetic equivalent of Asian session. Hope that prediction would not turn out to be true.

To be fair, it was an unusually active Asian session Frankfurt had a few good moves (and I count this as part of the Euro session) but London was pretty stagnant for sure.

I've been enjoying your analysis, always good to hear what another EURUSD trader is thinking. Thank you.

1. Euro has reached above the high of last week for some stops and then quickly trap back below the session VWAP and then weekly VWAP. It has subsequently found support at last week's weekly Volume value high at 11735 during afternoon session of New York. After taking a look at the monthly VP chart, the 11735 is also the running monthly volume value high. If that level were to give away, it would be significant piece of information to me signalling a change of trend.
So far Euro was not able to break and close above 1.18 key round number, which is going to be a big hurdle to clear without any significant news.

Therefore my base is for Euro to rollover after a failed run to the 1.18 mark making a lower high.

Pound has tested July monthly VPOC and everyone on twitter is talking about the big wedge formation in Pound.
To me, Pound is indeed looking weaker and weaker as it keeps grinding at the high.


I am actively monitoring the development in a shorter term chart for a break of this week's value low and this short trend line to confirm that it is ready to go lower.

shrekchenbin 

1. Euro has reached above the high of last week for some stops and then quickly trap back below the session VWAP and then weekly VWAP. It has subsequently found support at last week's weekly Volume value high at 11735 during afternoon session of New York. After taking a look at the monthly VP chart, the 11735 is also the running monthly volume value high. If that level were to give away, it would be significant piece of information to me signalling a change of trend. So far Euro was not able to break and close above 1.18 key round number, which is going to be a big hurdle to clear without any significant news. Therefore my base is for Euro to rollover after a failed run to the 1.18 mark making a lower high.

Notice the weak low below 11735 in the euro.

TPO chart.

shrekchenbin 

1. Euro has reached above the high of last week for some stops and then quickly trap back below the session VWAP and then weekly VWAP. It has subsequently found support at last week's weekly Volume value high at 11735 during afternoon session of New York. After taking a look at the monthly VP chart, the 11735 is also the running monthly volume value high. If that level were to give away, it would be significant piece of information to me signalling a change of trend. So far Euro was not able to break and close above 1.18 key round number, which is going to be a big hurdle to clear without any significant news.

The dollar is still heavy this morning. The support at 94.40 has been tested 2 times, and it is very likely to be broken on the third try. The break of 94.40 could send Euro another leg higher above 1.18.