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This resonates with me big time. I'm not near the 250 live trades yet but I can see the general pattern of slowly shutting off the losing and controlling things a bit more trade by trade. Its a long, slow process.
Wow I had no idea 10% over two months was that ambitious/considered a reach. I made more than that trading stocks; I certainly hope you're both wrong because if you're right, I've been wasting my time.
As for OP's original question, almost certainly yes. Most amateurs definitely lose. I fall under a few categories in the poll; I've been trading for over a year. Total disaster so far, but am now roughly breakeven/slightly profitable and hopefully getting there.
I'm not saying it's not possible, just not likely that someone can do it consistently month after month for years. Think about it: at 5% a month, that's 60% a year, compounded monthly, you'd have over $1.2 billion in 20 years, without adding any new capital. Otherwise, everybody would be like...
But 20 years is a decent amount of time, and you would surely run into liquidity issues before reaching 5M. I just can't see how 5% a month so unrealistic; I guess your fixed risk is significantly lower than mine. I was thinking a proficient trader could pull at least double digit percent gains in almost every month. A single day of great trading could probably see my account up 5%, lol, but you know better than me. Maybe I should wait until I have deep 6 figures before trading, otherwise it doesn't make sense if even 60% a year isn't doable; but at the same time, at that point I would rather just go back to the stock market.
10% a month,Yes Very doable. The right edge and capital can do this. If it wasn't, why trade. Of course there is a limit before your edges fade, or you become a market maker yourself.
I think a % return doesn't make sense until leverage is also specified. With a leverage of 1 and an average of 4% move per month it would be REALLY hard to achieve a 10% return. With a leverage of 100, however, it's very doable.
The problem is, the increased reward with more leverage also comes with more risk. It's easier to get a 10% return but also to lose that 10%. I think that's the reason most traders lose. Most of us are overleveraged/undercapitalized and while the returns could be amazing, it's also very easy to blow up our small accounts.
HI guys
I was a loosing trader for a very long time. For the first 5 years, I was just always sim trading, and everytime I thought I found something I would simply get crushed in testing. BIGGEST ADVICE ANYONE CAN GIVE YOU IS LEARN TO BREAK-EVEN YOUR TRADING POSITIONS. I LEARNED TO BREAK-EVEN MY POSITIONS, MOST TRADERS HERE WILL ALREADY KNOW WHAT THAT IS, AND AFTER THAT MY TRADING CAPITAL STARTED TO SLOWLY RISE(SLOWLY, NO MAGIC IN TRADING AND MAKING MILLIONS IN A YEAR).
EVERY SINCE I CAME UP WITH PERSONAL SYSTEM OF LOOKING AT PRICE ACTION AND CONSISTENTLY WINNING TRADES, I HAVE ALWAYS MADE MONEY. EVERY DAY FOR THE LAST 5 YEARS, I TRADED SIM ONLY, I HAVE MADE $100 OR MORE AND THEN I STOP ALL TRADING FOR THE DAY.
IT CAN BE DONE. I AM CURRENTLY RUNNING MY OWN THREAD WHERE I HAVE STARTED WITH 2000 USD AND NOW WE ARE AT 366 AND COUNTING. YOUR SYSTEM HAS TO BE AT LEAST 80% OR MORE PERCENT CONSISTENT AND PROVEN, IN REAL TRADING, NOT SOME BACKTESTING NONSENSE, AND BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR YOU, IS TO STAY DISCIPLINED AND MAINTAIN IT.
HAVING A PASSION FOR THE TRADING I THINK IS A HUGE, HUGE FACTOR IN ANYONE BEING SUCCESSFUL AT TRADING AND MAKING ANY SORT OF INCOME. LIKING WHAT YOU DO, LEADS TO BETTER DECISIONS, MORE TIME SPENT ON LEARNING IT AND TO BETTER RESULTS OVER TIME. I CAN GIVE 8 YEARS OF RESULTS FROM MY SYSTEM THAT HAS EVERY SINGLE DAY WITH $100 OR MORE MADE DAY TO DAY, WITH LIVE TRADING VIDEO OF EACH DAY. IT DEPENDS ON THE SYSTEM BUT BIGGEST THINK IN TRADING IS CONTROLLING YOUR POSITION, CONTROLLING YOUR POSTION
JUST MY TWO CENTS WORTH
Maybe not doable? Im a noob around. What do I know? You are talking about "swing" trading which seems like a different objective than "day trading" ...... If you can find a good entry point you can use a portion of your account and buy options and double your entire account size within a few weeks or even a few days... then you would be done for the entire year base on your profit target.
The reports I hear is that 60% of "all traders" consistently lose money. And the report above say that 80% of "retail traders" consistently lose money. Thats why Im thinking it may not be doable unless you either want to get like full time dedicated to learning a new skill set that 80% of people never grasp, or try getting lucky on an options chain every now and again?
I am considering just giving $250k to my local fund manager who uses ETF's and only charges a fee and is really good at getting 15% or more annually on high risk accounts. And then keep adding to the account as opportunity arises.
If you find a methodology that produces that 100% return and does not require any psychology, let me know because I think you will have a winner.