sstheo 

-------------- How to enter longs? I have this nasty habit on longs of entering at the highs, and then immediately triggering a pullback that hits my stop. Of course the price then reverses completely within 3 seconds of the stop and goes on to exceed my sucky entry-- and goes on to my original target. So, I must wait for pullbacks. The irony is that I absolutely enter correctly on shorts by waiting for pops in a downtrend (or flat market). So what is my problem???? Working on it....

You should turn your monitor upside down so you can keep going short but actually you are going long. But, no kidding, you can invert your chart. For instance with NinjaTrader by using mirrorbars or with TradingView.

WHAT POWER I HAVE! LoL.

Don't you find it incredible that within mere days after I fully committed to looking for more longs that the market turns bearish?

A few days ago I quoted a friend, "The market was made to go up. Always remember that, always. Or get killed."

I am now forced to amend his quote. I was too trusting and was a bit blinded:

"The market was made to go up. And 90% of the time it does. Go Long, unless you should be flat or going short. Don't be a BTFD bull if the signal is short. Use your freakin' brain. Don't be an idiot. Take good trades both ways."

Sad, but I was up $500 yesterday with some awesome micro trading, and I was feeling great, but foolishly ended up giving it all back. I was going both ways inside the massive range (one of my favorite things), but then things quickly got ugly at the end.

As the market sold off right at the end of the day I said to myself, "Okay, it's gone down far enough, I am going to fade this dip and catch this falling knife with my newfound bullish Kevlar gloves!"

But that was a mistake, and I took long after long with multiple micro contracts, and just got milked for money.

Oh the hard lessons we have to learn as traders...

----------------

And regarding the market, what a difference 4 days make!

4258.25 was the all time high, made during Tuesday's session. 4140.75 was the low from Friday. That is about 118 ES points, and we almost reached the low from Monday 4 weeks ago. (See the yellow circle)

In just 4 trading days, we erased all those gains, with most of that happening yesterday:




We know the market goes down 4 to 7 times faster that it rises, and now we have visual and numerical proof of the 4 number.

----------------

Notice the pink down arrows above the red daily volume delta candles last week and this Tuesday. I called out in alarm here in this journal. That was a LOT of red candles on rising POCs. So I should not have been surprised at all with the selloff. The Big Boys were selling into strength, lightening their positions or even building short positions.

The Fed's statements about interest rate increases about 24 months out got everyone skittish. WHAT??? Two years is an eternity in the world of equities markets. These big boys are totally insane! What if Powell had said "We will raise rates in 36 months" ??? or "48 months"???

Or is everyone skittish because they now have certifiable proof that the Fed truly is insane by waiting that long when inflation is CLEARLY yelling in Powell's face but he is still in full denial?

-------------------

So the real issue now is this: Where will be be at the end of next week?

Will we be back at new All Time Highs?

Or is the market sufficiently spooked that the craziness of the last 15 months bull run is finally settling in? Will we now have a 10% correction (about 400 points down - to 4060)? Or a 20% correction (800 points - to 3660)?

I just don't know.

But if so, how ironic it will be that I was FINALLY willing to take more longs after 15 months on "nothing but up" - only to have the market turn within mere days of my proclamation.

In any event, if we keep going down, I think the following levels (marked on chart above) should give good bounces:

A 4100 (open of 5/20)
B 4075 (low of 5/20)
C 4050 (near low of 5/19)

----------------------

May you be wise. May you be adept at trading BOTH directions in this time of uncertainty.

Indeed, the market was made to go up.

But sometimes it needs to get a running start.

Don't be afraid to short.

howdy Steve. looks like you're still chipping away at the stone. congrats.

i'm flat at 6.75 today (61.8 swing retrace on daily less 4 ticks)

the etf machine is loaded up pretty full and will be exiting a few positions today for a healthy profit. also starting to migrate towards weekly time-frame for those trades as it is just way too much to manage for multiple accounts with trying to enter/exit trades at EOD. also the whole model is going to be changed somewhat to a 4-pronged portfolio management setup that's focused more on uncorrelated instruments and strategies.

Mich62 

You should turn your monitor upside down so you can keep going short but actually you are going long. But, no kidding, you can invert your chart. For instance with NinjaTrader by using mirrorbars or with TradingView.

I love the idea, thanks!

Phil in Texas 

the etf machine is loaded up pretty full and will be exiting a few positions today for a healthy profit. also starting to migrate towards weekly time-frame for those trades as it is just way too much to manage for multiple accounts with trying to enter/exit trades at EOD. also the whole model is going to be changed somewhat to a 4-pronged portfolio management setup that's focused more on uncorrelated instruments and strategies.

Hi Phil,

Great exit on the run up this morning! Wow.

Congrats on the ETF machine. Whether daily or weekly, you have something pretty nice there.

I am indeed chipping away at this. Things are getting exciting. I am starting to try slightly larger size, and it is working. I am still on the micros however. My few attempts at the E-mini ended in paralysis, so I am not ready yet.

Hi sstheo,

I have only just discovered this thread or you would have had more votes. It has a lot of similarities to how I am trading. m2k & mnq mainly with fast charts and use of tick.

I particularly like tick-tf with m2k as it is 'pure' by which I mean all 2000 equities are used in the tick-tf. Particularly good for divergences.

M2k- 21-06


Quick scalp example. My entry should have been a bit earlier as it crossed the yellow line.

britkid99 

Hi sstheo, I have only just discovered this thread or you would have had more votes. It has a lot of similarities to how I am trading. m2k & mnq mainly with fast charts and use of tick. I particularly like tick-tf with m2k as it is 'pure' by which I mean all 2000 equities are used in the tick-tf. Particularly good for divergences.

Thanks for the post. There are SO MANY little trades available during the day, and the fast scalping is the ticket for sure. I haven't seen the TF-tick through AMP, but they do have the NQ-Tick. I may look at that too, since the MNQ often kicks my butt.

For the last two years I have continued to scalp, but I have tried to become aware of bigger market forces, and even take some bigger swing trades. But mainly I am scalping "around the core" meaning I am scalping in the direction of the bigger swings.

My use of

• Daily O, H, L, C
• VAH, POC, VAL
• big Fib structures
• VWAP standard deviation bands

has allowed me to be more selective in my scalps, and I believe - increase the probability of good trades.

Keep up the great work!

Hi sstheo, i read your journals at elitetrader in the past and they helped me out a lot. When you stopped posting i thought you had quit to focus on your job. It's great to see you back again.