Friday February 18th

Drew charts for Sugar, Cocoa, Canola and Orange Juice.
Orange Juice is on the liquidity lower end, but still sufficient I'd say. One step lower would be Rough Rice which I intend not to trade because of fear of too much slippage.

Also made a general info's sheet.
I see 1 contract traded on a CME market as the norm and adapted the ICE traded markets to that.

I haven't looked into why exactly that is so yet, but interestingly the measurement unit Bushel actually isn't the same for every grain if you convert that into for example tons. Seems that must have also some other factor than just weight to it.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts and efforts with us here.

You may want to pay some more attention to the volume build-up with the associated price action to get a heads-up on what may follow.

Good Luck, and keep sharing.

MrMojoRisin 

Wednesday February 16th Drew Bar-charts for Lean Hogs, Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal, and continued on building a solid charting-base on SC. Found 2 hindsight pattern: Soybean Oil This is a pattern I should definitely trade if I see it. The bottom could probably also be seen as a H&S. Lean Hogs This looks very nice in hindsight, but could have been a type of nerve-wrecker. I would have probably done an entry with a loss as it still was more of a symmetrical Triangle, and then as it formed out like a perfect ascending Triangle, it did a gap-up on my entry day and barely sold down to the previous day's high, so I might have got no entry there and would have watched it spiking without me. Such a scenario could be prevented by not waiting for confirmation, but in the long run I think such a missed trade and the slightly worse r/r gets probably offset by some losses I prevent.

May be worthwhile to add a column 'Daily Potential' (tick worth x (ticks between 1SD and VWAP)) in dollars/euros to get an idea of the 1SD profit/burn potential.

MrMojoRisin 

Friday February 18th Drew charts for Sugar, Cocoa, Canola and Orange Juice. Orange Juice is on the liquidity lower end, but still sufficient I'd say. One step lower would be Rough Rice which I intend not to trade because of fear of too much slippage. Also made a general info's sheet. I see 1 contract traded on a CME market as the norm and adapted the ICE traded markets to that. I haven't looked into why exactly that is so yet, but interestingly the measurement unit Bushel actually isn't the same for every grain if you convert that into for example tons. Seems that must have also some other factor than just weight to it.

chalil 

Thank you for sharing your thoughts and efforts with us here. You may want to pay some more attention to the volume build-up with the associated price action to get a heads-up on what may follow. Good Luck, and keep sharing.

Thanks for your interest!

I do try to keep an eye on volume, especially when a pattern-breakout day occurs, if significant volume might give me a clue for the reliability of the breakout.
But I disregard it for influencing any decision, since it will probably lead me down again the path of trying to avoid losses and overcomplicating.
According to the "authorities" I'm basing the method on, it shouldn't make that much difference in the futures.

Concerning SD, I haven't occupied myself with that until now. It might be an idea in the future, but for now it will probably lead to the same overcomplicating scenario based on my urge of "making every trade as equal as possible" of which I'm trying to get away currently.

MrMojoRisin 

I haven't looked into why exactly that is so yet, but interestingly the measurement unit Bushel actually isn't the same for every grain if you convert that into for example tons. Seems that must have also some other factor than just weight to it.

I was going to write that a "bushel" is a unit of volume (size), not of weight, but I thought I would look it up first. It turns out that a "bushel" is an odder unit of measure than it seems.

Quoting 

Bushels are now most often used as units of mass or weight rather than of volume. The bushels in which grains are bought and sold on commodity markets or at local grain elevators, and for reports of grain production, are all units of weight.[7] This is done by assigning a standard weight to each commodity that is to be measured in bushels. These bushels depend on the commodities being measured, and on the moisture content of the commodity. Some of the more common ones are: Oats: US: 32 lb[7] (14.5150 kg) Canada: 34 lb[8] (15.4221 kg) Barley: 48 lb[7] (21.7724 kg) Malted barley: 34 lb (15.4221 kg) Shelled maize (corn) at 15.5% moisture by weight: 56 lb[7] (25.4012 kg) Wheat at 13.5% moisture by weight: 60 lb[7] (27.2155 kg) Soybeans at 13% moisture by weight: 60 lb[9] (27.2 kg) Other specific values are defined (and those definitions may vary within different jurisdictions, including from state to state in the United States) for other grains, oilseeds, fruits, vegetables, coal, hair and many other commodities. Government policy in the United States is to phase out units such as the bushel and replace them with metric mass equivalents.[10]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushel

Since different grains have different densities (mass divided by volume), it makes sense that "bushels" of different grains would weigh different amounts. It doesn't really make that much sense that "bushels" are still used, but that's tradition, I suppose....

Bob.

bobwest 

I was going to write that a "bushel" is a unit of volume (size), not of weight, but I thought I would look it up first. It turns out that a "bushel" is an odder unit of measure than it seems. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushel Since different grains have different densities (mass divided by volume), it makes sense that "bushels" of different grains would weigh different amounts. It doesn't really make that much sense that "bushels" are still used, but that's tradition, I suppose.... Bob.

Interesting! That way it makes sense.
If I remember it correctly, there was a part in Reminiscences where Livermore did some huge trade in Cotton described in buying so and so many bushels. But that today actually is quoted in Cents per pound.
So maybe the folks in New York have "phased the bushel already out" (even though not metric).

👍😊 keep sharing, good luck !

MrMojoRisin 

Thanks for your interest! I do try to keep an eye on volume, especially when a pattern-breakout day occurs, if significant volume might give me a clue for the reliability of the breakout. But I disregard it for influencing any decision, since it will probably lead me down again the path of trying to avoid losses and overcomplicating. According to the "authorities" I'm basing the method on, it shouldn't make that much difference in the futures. Concerning SD, I haven't occupied myself with that until now. It might be an idea in the future, but for now it will probably lead to the same overcomplicating scenario based on my urge of "making every trade as equal as possible" of which I'm trying to get away currently.

Monday February 21st


Kentucky Wheat


Unfortunately the technicalities with Mr. Paper and Mr. Sim aren't finished yet, but this would be an order-placement.
For it to be a valid and not a forced Triangle, I want to see an 1-4 or more alternating zig-zag move between the two borders. The two "x" I see as an additional bonus.
The confirmation I want, which is a clear close outside the border of which it broke out is given and if it rises above this day's high, there's no question for me anymore that it's worth the try.
Maybe Chicago Wheat can follow which closed weaker on Friday for a "Micro-Contract" trade in the ETF.

Tuesday February 22nd


Canola


Solid ascending Triangle but unfortunately still not able to trade.



Chicago Wheat


Chicago Wheat do followed Kentucky today, but under "unfortunate" circumstances.
First it gapped above the pattern border, then it got back a little in, but again rose too far outwards for making it possible to place the stop below the day-low given my risk-management rules.
So I had to move to the stop "below significant intraday low" rule and then finally the 1:2 min r/r looked not that favorable anymore.

But since it could as well be seen as a H&S with an up-slanting neckline, and applying this profit-target the situation looks better, I consider the situation still alright.

So I'll place a place a buying order, via the Wheat ETF, and aim for the Triangle 1:2 profit objective.

Wednesday February 23rd

Teucrium ETFs: No trading permission for retail clients! Would have been an idea to look that up before I put in the time to calculate my Micro-Contracts.
Typical case of being so enthusiastic about the idea and forgetting to check if that even works how I think it should.
Opening up a paper-trading account takes also way longer than I thought....